Overall, there are reasonably high levels of agreement this week between MoSSBODS and the two bookmakers, with all three having the average expected Totals within a point of one another. MoSHBODS, however, again has higher expectations in a number of games, and about a two-point higher average expected Total.
Read MoreThis week includes a remarkable seven games where the teams are separated on the competition ladder by between 1 and 4 places, one where they are separated by exactly 7 places, and one where they are separated by exactly 14 places.
That’s translated into a set of expected margins that includes seven sized at about two-and-a-half goals or less, and two sized at about six-and-a-half or seven-and-a-half goals.
The overall average expected margin is 16.3 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 21 standards, and the lowest in the history of the data shown here. It drops the all-season average expected margin to just under 18.0 points per game.
Read MoreGeelong, despite losing Rating Points on MoSSBODS for the second week running and essential remaining static on MoSHBODS, retained top spot on both Systems this week, while Melbourne leap-frogged Sydney to take second.
In total, there were 12 moves on MoSSBODS and the same number on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of the 1st to 6th, 8th, and 13th through 18th teams. There is now only one team where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Carlton.
Eleven teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and twelve, with Essendon just making the cut, on MoSHBODS,
Read MoreSeven early-week favourites again won this week, which set the floor for the Head-to-Head Tipster performances as five Tipsters recorded seven correct tips, and four recorded eight correct tips. Two of those scoring eight from nine were the team-based MoS models, which left MoSHBODS_Marg one tip clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 128.5 from 171 (75%), ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 127.5 (75%), and then Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins, all now eight tips behind, on 120.5 (71%). MoSHPlay_Marg is a further tip back on 119.5 (70%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has Cats by 21 points and Blues by 16 points.
Pies by just under a goal, and Swans by just under 5 goals, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has flipped to Freo - just.
MoSHPlay is, so far, the extreme Margin Predictor in three games.
Overall, there are quite high levels of agreement this week between MoSSBODS and the two bookmakers, with all three having the same average expected Total. MoSHBODS, however, has higher expectations in a number of games, and a higher average expected Total..
Read MoreThis week includes four games where the teams are separated on the competition ladder by between 3 and 5 places, and five where they are separated by exactly 7 places or 9 places.
That’s translated into a set of expected margins that includes:
4 games under about a goal
2 games from about two to three goals
3 games from about five to six goals.
The overall average expected margin is 17.2 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 20 standards, and the lowest since 2017. It keeps the all-season average expected margin at about 18.0 points per game.
Read MoreGeelong, despite losing Rating Points on MoSSBODS and barely gaining them on MoSHBODS, retained top spot on both Systems this week, while Sydney held onto second and Melbourne third.
In total there were seven moves on MoSSBODS and just two on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of only the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 12th through 18th teams. There are only two teams, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Carlton and Richmond.
Eleven teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS,.
Read MoreSeven early-week favourites won this week, and an eighth drew, and the extremely low levels of contrarian head-to-head tipping meant that virtually nothing happened on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard save for Home Sweet Home falling another two tips adrift of the pack.
MoSHBODS_Marg remains one tip clear at the top of the Leaderboard, now on 120.5 from 162 (74%), ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 119.5 (74%), and Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins, still seven tips behind, on 113.5 (70%). MoSHPlay_Marg is a further tip back on 112.5 (69%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay ends at Saints by 4 goals.
Collingwood by the barest of margins, according to MoSHPlay.
Blues by 28 points, according to MoSHPlay.
Lions by 25 points, and Dees by 9 points, according to MoSHPlay.
Cats by just 1 point, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay’s final thoughts on the first Saturday games, and some small updates on the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay is the extreme Margin Predictor in four games (and the contrarian Head-to-Head Tipster of Essendon in one of those)
There are high levels of agreement this week between the MoS twins and the two bookmakers, with MoSSBODS’ average expected Total just a point less than the bookmakers’, and MoSHBODS’ expected Total just two points higher.
Read MoreThis week includes seven games where the teams are separated on the competition ladder by between 7 and 10 places, and just two where they’re separated by 4 or 5 places.
That’s not translated into a slew of large expected margins, though, with 5 games expected to be won by under 16 points, and the remaining 4 games by under 31 points.
The overall average expected margin is 15.9 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 19 standards, but slightly higher than last year’s and 2019’s 14.1 points per game. It lowers the all-season average expected margin to 18.0 points per game, which is looking like it’ll be the highest home-and-away season average since 2018.
Read MoreGeelong retained top spot on both Systems this week, while Sydney took second away from Melbourne.
Further down the ladder there were nine more moves on MoSSBODS and eight more on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of only the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 9th. 11th, and 14th through 18th. There are only two teams, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Carlton and Richmond.
Eleven teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS,.
Read MoreIn something of a recurring theme, six opening-market favourites won yet again this week. The only Head-to-Head Tipsters doing better than this par score were the MoS trio, with MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSHPlay_Marg both bagging 7 from 9, and MoSSBODS_Marg bagging 8 from 9.
That left MoSHBODS_Marg one tip clear at the top of the Leaderboard, now on 113 from 153 (74%), ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 112 from 153 (73%), and Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins, now seven tips behind, on 106 from 153 (69%). MoSHPlay_Marg is a further tip back on 105 from 153 (69%), which means that player knowledge has resulted in 8 fewer correct tips.
Read MoreMelbourne by just 3 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has it as Hawthorn by 32 points.
MoSHPlay has it as Cats by 12 and Dockers by 4 points.
Pies by 3 and Lions by 2, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has the Dogs by 2 goals now.
MoSHPlay is the extreme Margin Predictor in four games.
There are, again, some relatively large differences between the MoS and bookmaker Total forecasts this week, and even between the MoS twins themselves.
In the end, MoSSBODS’ average is quite close to the two bookmakers’, and MoSHBODS’ is 4 or 5 points higher.
Read MoreThis week we have:
1 game where the teams are immediately adjacent on the ladder
4 games where they're between 3 and 5 places apart
4 games where they're 9 or 10 places apart
That’s translated into five games that the TAB Bookmaker expects to have a single digit margin, two more with expected margins around two-and-a-half goals, one with an expected margin around 6.5 goals, and a final one with an expected margin around nine-and-a-half goals,
The overall average expected margin is 15.5 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 18 standards, but slightly higher than last year’s 15.4 points per game. It lowers the all-season average expected margin to 18.1 points per game.
Read MoreGeelong’s win over Melbourne was enough to see them snag top spot from the Dees on both MoS Rating Systems this week, and Sydney’s win over Western Bulldogs was enough to convince MoSHBODS to join MoSSBODS in ratings them third.
Overall, 13 teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, including all but the teams in 3rd, and 15th to 18th. The same number moved places on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of only the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 11th, 17th and 18th teams. There are only three teams, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Carlton, Collingwood, and Richmond.
Eleven teams are now rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS,.
Read MoreSix opening-market favourites won yet again this week, but some wise contrarian tipping by the MoS trio saw them all bag eight from nine, leaving MoSHBODS_Marg still two tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard, now on 106 from 144 (74%), ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 104 from 144 (72%), and Bookie Knows Best. now six tips behind, on 100 from 144 (69%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Carlton by 27 points.
Hawks by 2 points, according to MoSHPlay.
Lions by 21 now, according to MoSHPlay.
Dockers by 2 and Port by 16, according to MoSHPlay.
Some MoSHPlay updates to reflect the latest team lists on the AFL website.
Pies by 9 goals, according to MoSHPlay.
Swans by 11 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay is currently the extreme predictor in only two games.
Cats by two whiskers now, according to MoSHPlay.
It’s the Cats by a whisker, according to MoSHPlay.
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