TIME BETWEEN SCORING EVENTS

This page contains charts relating to scoring behaviours in AFL games, using score progression data from the afttables.com website for the period 2012 to 2024 extracted using the fitzRoy R package. As at the time of writing (mid-February 2025), 38 of 2696 games from these years are unavailable.

We analyse three aspects of time between scoring events:

Time Between Scoring Events By Score Types

In this chart we look at the time between consecutive scoring events, grouping by the type of the previous scoring event and whether it was by the same or the opposing team, and faceting by quarter.

(Note that we have removed 4 pairs of events where the time between them exceeded 30 minutes - despite them being in the same quarter - and we only show the charts up to 500 seconds, which includes 99.2% of inter-event time differences.)

We find that the mean (and median) time to the next scoring event:

  • Is shortest when a behind is followed by a behind for the same team (124 to 128 seconds)

  • Is next shortest when a behind is followed by a goal for the same team (127 to 130 seconds)

  • Is next shortest when a behind is followed by a behind or goal for the other team (135 to 145 seconds)

  • Is next shortest when a goal is followed by a behind to either team, although generally a little quicker if it’s for the same team (159 to 166 seconds)

  • Is longest when a goal is followed by another goal to either team (164 to 168 seconds)

These differences reflect the average elapsed time required to get the ball back into a scoring position after the previous scoring event, which is shorter for a behind (for the same team) compared to a goal by either team, since the ball is returned to the centre of he field after each goal.

There is no consistent pattern to the differences in mean times between events across quarters.

Time Between Scoring Events Within Different Portions of the Same Quarter

So far we’ve treated the entire 30-or-so minutes of each quarter as being homogenous in terms of scoring behaviour, but we know, for example, that the ball starts each quarter as far from an average scoring opportunity for either team as it’s possible to be (ie the centre circle).

Also, as quarters and games progress, conceivably defences might tire which would see consecutive scores being registered more rapidly.

In the next chart we break each quarter into four equally-sized chunks and look at the time between scoring events within each chunk. So, for example, Q1 has, in chronological order, Q1/1, Q1/2, Q1/3, and finally Q1/4. Note that the timing of each scoring event pair is determined by when the first scoring event took place.

We also account for the size of the lead at the time the first scoring event took place.

We find that:

  • In Q1, the mean time between scoring events for any given lead is, broadly, consistent at around 150 to 160 seconds except for the final quarter of Q1 where the mean time shortens dramatically to around 125 to 130 seconds (bear in mind that large leads will be relatively infrequent in Q1s, so the sample sizes available for estimating means will be small)

  • In Q2 the pattern is quite similar to Q1, but now we can take more notice of the estimated means for larger leads. We see that, for the first three-quarters of Q2 and for leads under 3 goals, the mean time between scoring events is about 155 seconds, but this falls to about 130 seconds for leads of 3 goals or more. Again we see an acceleration in scoring in the final quarter of Q2, and find that the mean time between scoring events for leads under 3 goals is about 130 seconds, and for leads of 3 goals or more is about 115 seconds.

  • Q3 is like Q2 but with slightly shorter mean times between events in a few instances

  • Q4 is like no other. In very close games (where leads are a goal or less) the mean time between scoring events is at 150 seconds for the first quarter, 156 seconds for the next two quarters, and then 126 seconds for the final quarter.
    Where the lead is between 7 and 17 points, the mean time between scoring events is around 160 seconds for the first half, 154 seconds for the third quarter, and then 132 seconds for the final quarter.
    For leads of 18 points or more, the mean time between scoring events is around 120 seconds for the first quarter, 122 seconds for the third quarter, and then 107 seconds for the final quarter. There is, however a 13 second difference in the mean time between scoring events in the second quarter of Q4s for games where the lead is 18-29 versus 30 points, with the arm wrestle to keep the margin at around 3 to 5 goals versus making the game a contest presumably conspiring to lengthen the time between scores.

Time Between Scoring Events in Different Seasons

For a final piece of analysis we’ll look at the mean time between scoring events across the four quarters for four of the seasons in our dataset, including the COVID-ruined 2020 season.

We find that the mean time between scoring events numbers across all four quarters are remarkably similar at around 137 to 144 seconds for each of 2012, 2016, and 2020. The 2024 season saw shorter mean times of around 127 to 132 seconds.