2025 - Round 10 : Turns Out We Didn't Have the Advantage

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Seven of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by just over three goals or less, an eighth by just under four goals, and the ninth by just over five goals. Last week, numbers like those presaged a round that produced victory margins of 0, 2, 4, 5, 8, 10, 14, 15, and 35, which works out to 10.3 points per game.

A similar round should make for low MAEs and some opportunities for Head-to-Head Predictors to benefit from contrarianism.

Let’s see what the models make of the week.

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2025 - Team Ratings After Round 9

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In an interesting week, MoSSBODS lowered the Rating of its Top 4 teams, but left them in the same order, and MoSHBODS did the same for its Top 3. That left MoSSBODS with the same Top 3 of Dogs, Pies, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with the same Top 3 of Dogs, Pies, and Hawks.

Further down, MoSSBODS re-ranked only four teams this week, and all by just a single spot, while MoSHBODS also re-ranked only four teams, but two teams by two spots: the Lions down 2 into 6th, and Gold Coast up 2 into 5th.

Interestingly, Geelong gained Rating Points on MoSSBODS (because of its 31 to 25 scoring shot “victory” over GWS) but lost them on MoSHBODS, while GWS did the opposite

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2025 - Round 9 Results - Close

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Six of the early-week favourites got up this week, and another one drew, but what set this round apart was the narrowness of many of the victory margins. Along with the draw, we saw wins by 2, 4, 5, 8, 10, 14, and 15 points leaving only the Hawks’ 35-point win as the outlier.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Predictors, only ENS_Linear and Consult The Ladder joined Bookie Knows Best in recording a score of six-and-a-half, which left MoSHPlay, who scored one fewer, now three tips clear of the field and on 61.5 from 80 (77%).

The all-Tipster score came in at 5.6 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 54.6 from 80 (68%).

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2025 - Team Ratings After Round 8

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MoSSBODS only re-ranked seven teams this week, but none of the Top 4, and only Adelaide (up 3 to 9th) and Fremantle (down 2 to 12th) by more than a single spot. MoSHBODS was far more trigger-happy, and moved 12 teams, but only three of them by multi-spots: Carlton down 5 to 8th, Adelaide up 3 into 6th, and St Kilda up 2 into 12th.

That left the two Systems with the same set of teams in the Top 5 and, within that quintet, placing only the Brisbane Lions and Hawthorn in a different order. Both now have the Dogs 1st, and the Pies 2nd.

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2025 - Round 8 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SATURDAY 7PM

Here are MoSHPlay’s final views on this evening’s fare, and new preliminary views on tomorrow’s.

UPDATE THURSDAY 10:30PM

MoSHPlay’s now has some preliminary thoughts about the remainder of games in the Round.

UPDATE THURSDAY 8AM

MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about tonight’s game have the Dons winning by 17 points.

2025 - Team Ratings After Round 7

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MoSSBODS re-ranked 11 teams this week, but none of the Top 3, and only Carlton (up 2 to 5th), Geelong (down 2 to 6th), Gold Coast (up 3 to 8th) and GWS (down 2 to 11th) by more than a single spot. MoSHBODS moved the same number of teams as MoSSBODS, and also moved four of them by multi-spots: Lions up 2 to 5th, Blues up 2 into 3rd; Geelong down 2 into 5th, and GWS down 2 into 8th.

That all left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Pies, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Pies, Dogs, and Blues.

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2025 - Round 7 Results - Progress

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Seven of the early-week favourites got up this week, but only three of the Head-to-Head Predictors registered that score. MoSHPlay_Marg tipped the two successful underdogs to finish with a perfect score, while the two other MoS Predictors landed eights. Worst was Consult the Ladder’s five, just ahead of the RSMP twins’ sixes.

MoSHPlay now finds itself four tips clear of the field on 50 from 62 (81%).

The all-Tipster score came in at 7 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 42.8 from 62 (69%).

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2025 - Round 7 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE FRIDAY 11:15PM

MoSHPlay has made some small adjustments to its preliminary Sunday forecasts.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay is staying with Dees by 16 points tonight, but also now has some preliminary views on the remaining games in the round.

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 11:30PM

MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about Thursday night’s game have the Dees winning by 16 points.

2025 - Round 7 : Overs/Unders

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Just for a little variety, this week the Totals markets went up in three tranches across about 75 minutes on Tuesday, at the end of which we find the MoS twins once again more bearish about scoring in almost every game than are the bookmakers.

Those two bookmakers are, on average, forecasting Totals about 4 points higher than the twins, albeit that the twins themselves again have some disagreements on individual games, which this week only are as large as 5 points and mostly are around 1 to 3 points.

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2025 - Team Ratings After Round 6

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MoSSBODS made mostly single-spot re-rankings this week, although it did move over half the teams, the only multi-spot mover being Port Adelaide down 2 into 8th. MoSHBODS, while moving the same number of teams as MoSSBODS, moved four of them by multi-spots, including Western Bulldogs up 5 into 2nd, Brisbane Lions down 4 into 7th, Carlton up 4 into 5th, and Gold Coast down 2 into 8th.

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2025 - Round 6 Results - A Few Seconds

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Only four of the early-week favourites got up this week, leading to most Head-to-Head Predictors registering that score, the exceptions being MoSHPlay_Marg and Home Sweet Home with five, and Consult the Ladder with just two. That left MoSHPlay now two tips clear of the field on 41 from 53 (77%).

The all-Tipster score came in at 4 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 35.8 from 53 (68%).

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2025 - Round 6 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 9:30PM

MoSHPlay, finally given the data it needs to come up with a preliminary view, has the Cats winning by 3 points.

UPDATE SATURDAY 3:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Crows by 6 points.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM

MoSHPlay has preliminary views about all bu the Monday game and they’re mostly similar to MoSHBODS’ although 7 points better for Essendon over West Coast, and 8 points better for Gold Coast over Richmond.

UPDATE THURSDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay has finished at the Lions by 14 points after making a small adjustment that moved the rounded value up by a point.

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 9:30PM

MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about Thursday night’s game have the Lions winning by 13 points.