2025 - Round 6 : Overs/Unders

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Back to mid-morning and mid-afternoon wagering this week in the Totals markets where we find the MoS twins far more bearish about scoring in a number of games than are the bookmakers.

The two bookmakers are, on average, about 5 to 6 points higher than the twins, albeit that the twins themselves have some disagreements on individual games that are as large as 6 points.

Opinions about high- and low-scoring teams and games are surprisingly similar, although MoSSBODS’ thoughts on team scoring are quite different:

Highest Scoring Game

  • All: Adelaide v GWS

Lowest Scoring Game

  • All: Melbourne v Fremantle

Highest Scoring Team

  • MoSSBODS: Carlton

  • MoSHBODS and Bookmakers: Gold Coast

Lowest Scoring Team

  • MoSSBODS: North Melbourne

  • MoSHBODS and Bookmakers: Richmond

WAGERS

Buoyed by its just marginally better than chance performance last week, MoSSBODS has waded into the market with four wagers, all of them unders, and two of them quite substantial.

The estimated overlays in the wagered-upon games range from about 7 to 17 points, and the wager sizes from 2.2% and 7% accordingly. Time for some rain dances …

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week was an okay one for MoSSBODS as it took overall honours for Game Margins and Home Team Scores, while Sportsbet took Away Team Scores and shared Game Totals with the TAB.

The TAB now holds the season-long top or equal-top spot on all four measures - still sharing Game Totals with Sportsbet - having this week wrested Home Team Scores away from MoSHBODS.

The leads are as follows:

  • Game Margins: TAB 7 points ahead of Sportsbet and 21 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: TAB 5 points ahead of Sportsbet and 9 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: the TAB 6 points ahead of Sportsbet and 9 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: Sportsbet and the TAB 50 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 53 ahead of MoSSBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were two bets last week: a win and a loss with the TAB on unders. That left MoSSBODS with a 2 and 5 season-long performance against the TAB, and a 1 and 0 season-long perfomance against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS was on the right side of the Total 5 times in 9 against the TAB and Sportsbet, while MoSHBODS managed only 3 from 9 against both bookmakers.

That takes MoSSBODS to 18 from 44 (41%) against the TAB and Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 23 from 44 (52%) against the TAB, and 22 from 44 (50%) against Sportsbet.