WoSHBODS tipped the winner of the Grand Final, and recorded a Margin MAE of just under 11.5 points per game and a Totals MAE of 28.2 points per game.
That took its season-long figures to 77.5 from 108 (72%) for accuracy, 19.1 for Margin MAE, and 17.5 for Totals MAE, which is roughly as good as the bookmakers on accuracy, better than them on Margin MAE, and a little worse on Total MAE (and on LPS)..
Read MoreWoSHBODS has taken:
North Melbourne v Brisbane 0.4% o73.5 @ $1.87
WoSHBODS has the Roos defeating the Lions by just over 3 goals in the final game of the season, perhaps by 6.11 to 4.5, or 7.6 to 3.11.
Read MoreWoSHBODS tipped both winners in Week 3 of the Finals, although you could argue that it tipped only one if you took more notice of its probability estimates than its margin forecasts.
It also recorded a Margin MAE of 17.2 points per game and a Totals MAE of 17.4 points per game.
Those numbers took its season-long figures to 76.5 from 107 (72%) for accuracy, 19.2 for Margin MAE, and 17.4 for Totals MAE.
Read MoreWoSHBODS has taken:
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide: 0.8% u76.5 @ $1.87
In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Week 2 of the Finals and project the outcomes for the remainder of the Finals series.
The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.
Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.
The results this week are as shown below.
Read MoreWoSHBODS has the Roos v Power game as a 7-goal blowout, and the Lions v Crows games as a coin-toss.
(Also, because it simulates every contest in coming up with a probability estimate, and because that process produces a distribution of final margins that is not symmetric, it has Brisbane’s average margin as +0.2 but winning only 49% of the time.)
Read MoreWoSHBODS tipped only one of the two winners in Week 2 of the Finals, although it had every reason to feel that it had both in the proverbial bag at three-quarter time in the Hawks v Power game.
It also recorded a Margin MAE of 20.9 points per game and a Totals MAE of 9.8 points per game.
Those numbers took its season-long figures to 74.5 from 105 (71%) for accuracy, 19.2 for Margin MAE, and 17.4 for Totals MAE.
Read MoreWoSHBODS has taken:
Adelaide v Fremantle: 3.1% u65.5 @ $1.87
WoSHBODS has comfortable wins for both home team favourites this week, with expected victory margins of around three goals.
Read MoreIn this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Week 1 of the Finals and project the outcomes for the remainder of the Finals series.
The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.
Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.
The results this week are as shown below.
Read MoreWoSHBODS tipped three of the four winners in Week 1 of the Finals, and also recorded a Margin MAE of just 11.2 points per game and a Totals MAE of 19.4 points per game.
Those numbers took its season-long figures to 73.5 from 103 (71%) for accuracy, 19.2 for Margin MAE, and 17.6 for Totals MAE.
Still solid.
Read MoreWoSHBODS has taken:
Hawthorn v Brisbane: 3.4% o75.5 @ $1.87
Port Adelaide v Richmond: 2.6% u74.5 @ $1.87
WoSHBODS has taken:
Fremantle v Essendon: 6.5% u66.5 @ $1.87
WoSHBODS has taken:
North Melbourne v Adelaide: 1.1% u72.5 @ $1.87
In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Round 10 and project the outcomes for the Finals series.
The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.
Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.
Read MoreIf WoSHBODS is accurate, we are in for quite the round of Finals in Week 1.
It has three of the four contests being decided by less than a goal, the exception being the Friday night contest between North Melbourne and Adelaide, which WoSHBODS expects to be relatively comfortably won by the Roos.
Read MoreWoSHBODS tipped all nine winners this week, and also recorded a Margin MAE of just 16.1 points per game and a Totals MAE of 17.4 points per game.
Those numbers took its season-long figures to 71 from 99 (71%) for accuracy, 19.5 for Margin MAE, and 17.5 for Totals MAE.
I genuinely could not be happier with those results, especially given how the men’s forecasts went this year.
Read MoreWoSHBODS has taken:
Richmond v Hawthorn: 1% o75.5 @ $1.85
Port Adelaide v GWS: 2.3% o75.5 @ $1.87
Fremantle v Western Bulldogs: 6% u74.5 @ $1.87
WoSHBODS has taken:
St Kilda v Brisbane: 2.2% o78.5 @ $1.87
WoSHBODS has taken:
Melbourne v Collingwood: 0.2% o69.5 @ $1.87
Sydney v West Coast: 2% o75.5 @ $1.87
North Melbourne v Gold Coast: 2.5% u84.5 @ $1.85
Carlton v Essendon: 1% u70.5 @ $1.87
WoSHBODS has taken:
Geelong v Adelaide: 1.1% o75.5 @ $1.87
As we approach the final round of the home and away season, we look back on what I think is clearly WoSHBODS’ best season by some distance, especially in terms of its ability to predict margins. This week it is tipping five home teams and four away teams to win, all of them favourites, and with the following distribution:
Under 2 goals: 2 games
From 2 to under 4 goals: 4 games
Over 4 goals: 3 games
In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Round 8 and, once again, project the final home-and-away season ladder and the subsequent Finals series.
The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.
Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.
The results this week are as shown below.
Read MoreWoSHBODS tipped eight from nine winners this week, and also recorded a Margin MAE of just 12.6 points per game and a Totals MAE of 11.7 points per game.
Those numbers took its season-long figures to 62 from 90 (68%) for accuracy, 19.8 for Margin MAE, and 17.5 for Totals MAE.
They are highly competitive numbers relative to the two bookmakers’.
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