AFLW 2024 - Round 13 - Unders/Overs
/UPDATED 1:00PM FRIDAY
WoSHBODS has taken:
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide: 0.8% u76.5 @ $1.87
AFLW 2024 - Simulations After Round 12
/In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Week 2 of the Finals and project the outcomes for the remainder of the Finals series.
The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.
Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.
The results this week are as shown below.
Read MoreAFLW 2024 - Round 13 (Week 3 of the Finals)
/WoSHBODS has the Roos v Power game as a 7-goal blowout, and the Lions v Crows games as a coin-toss.
(Also, because it simulates every contest in coming up with a probability estimate, and because that process produces a distribution of final margins that is not symmetric, it has Brisbane’s average margin as +0.2 but winning only 49% of the time.)
Read MoreAFLW 2024 - Round 12 Results - The Smallest Possible Profit
/WoSHBODS tipped only one of the two winners in Week 2 of the Finals, although it had every reason to feel that it had both in the proverbial bag at three-quarter time in the Hawks v Power game.
It also recorded a Margin MAE of 20.9 points per game and a Totals MAE of 9.8 points per game.
Those numbers took its season-long figures to 74.5 from 105 (71%) for accuracy, 19.2 for Margin MAE, and 17.4 for Totals MAE.
Read MoreAFLW 2024 - Round 12 - Unders/Overs
/UPDATED 10:40AM SATURDAY
WoSHBODS has taken:
Adelaide v Fremantle: 3.1% u65.5 @ $1.87
AFLW 2024 - Round 12 (Week 2 of the Finals)
/WoSHBODS has comfortable wins for both home team favourites this week, with expected victory margins of around three goals.
Read MoreAFLW 2024 - Simulations After Round 11
/In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Week 1 of the Finals and project the outcomes for the remainder of the Finals series.
The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.
Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.
The results this week are as shown below.
Read MoreAFLW 2024 - Round 11 Results - Let's Call It a Draw
/WoSHBODS tipped three of the four winners in Week 1 of the Finals, and also recorded a Margin MAE of just 11.2 points per game and a Totals MAE of 19.4 points per game.
Those numbers took its season-long figures to 73.5 from 103 (71%) for accuracy, 19.2 for Margin MAE, and 17.6 for Totals MAE.
Still solid.
Read MoreAFLW 2024 - Round 11 - Unders/Overs
/UPDATED 11:10AM SUNDAY
WoSHBODS has taken:
Hawthorn v Brisbane: 3.4% o75.5 @ $1.87
Port Adelaide v Richmond: 2.6% u74.5 @ $1.87
UPDATED 5:40PM SATURDAY
WoSHBODS has taken:
Fremantle v Essendon: 6.5% u66.5 @ $1.87
UPDATED 1:30PM FRIDAY
WoSHBODS has taken:
North Melbourne v Adelaide: 1.1% u72.5 @ $1.87
AFLW 2024 - Simulations After Round 10
/In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Round 10 and project the outcomes for the Finals series.
The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.
Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.
Read MoreAFLW 2024 - Round 11 (Week 1 of the Finals)
/If WoSHBODS is accurate, we are in for quite the round of Finals in Week 1.
It has three of the four contests being decided by less than a goal, the exception being the Friday night contest between North Melbourne and Adelaide, which WoSHBODS expects to be relatively comfortably won by the Roos.
Read MoreAFLW 2024 - Round 10 Results - A Small Giants Loss
/WoSHBODS tipped all nine winners this week, and also recorded a Margin MAE of just 16.1 points per game and a Totals MAE of 17.4 points per game.
Those numbers took its season-long figures to 71 from 99 (71%) for accuracy, 19.5 for Margin MAE, and 17.5 for Totals MAE.
I genuinely could not be happier with those results, especially given how the men’s forecasts went this year.
Read MoreAFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Unders/Overs
/UPDATE 1:45PM SUNDAY
WoSHBODS has taken:
Richmond v Hawthorn: 1% o75.5 @ $1.85
Port Adelaide v GWS: 2.3% o75.5 @ $1.87
Fremantle v Western Bulldogs: 6% u74.5 @ $1.87
UPDATE 12:15PM SUNDAY
WoSHBODS has taken:
St Kilda v Brisbane: 2.2% o78.5 @ $1.87
UPDATE 12:30PM SATURDAY
WoSHBODS has taken:
Melbourne v Collingwood: 0.2% o69.5 @ $1.87
Sydney v West Coast: 2% o75.5 @ $1.87
North Melbourne v Gold Coast: 2.5% u84.5 @ $1.85
Carlton v Essendon: 1% u70.5 @ $1.87
UPDATE 1:40PM FRIDAY
WoSHBODS has taken:
Geelong v Adelaide: 1.1% o75.5 @ $1.87
AFLW 2024 - Round 10
/As we approach the final round of the home and away season, we look back on what I think is clearly WoSHBODS’ best season by some distance, especially in terms of its ability to predict margins. This week it is tipping five home teams and four away teams to win, all of them favourites, and with the following distribution:
Under 2 goals: 2 games
From 2 to under 4 goals: 4 games
Over 4 goals: 3 games
AFLW 2024 - Simulations After Round 9
/In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Round 8 and, once again, project the final home-and-away season ladder and the subsequent Finals series.
The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.
Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.
The results this week are as shown below.
Read MoreAFLW 2024 - Round 9 Results - Giving Something Back
/WoSHBODS tipped eight from nine winners this week, and also recorded a Margin MAE of just 12.6 points per game and a Totals MAE of 11.7 points per game.
Those numbers took its season-long figures to 62 from 90 (68%) for accuracy, 19.8 for Margin MAE, and 17.5 for Totals MAE.
They are highly competitive numbers relative to the two bookmakers’.
Read MoreAFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Unders/Overs
/UPDATE 11:30AM SUNDAY
WoSHBODS has taken:
Western Bulldogs v St Kilda: 3.0% u71.5 @ $1.85
Collingwood v Carlton: 1.0% o68.5 @ $1.85
Brisbane v Sydney: 0.5% o85.5 @ $1.87
UPDATE 2PM SATURDAY
WoSHBODS has taken:
Essendon v Richmond: 1.2% u64.5 @ $1.85
UPDATE 11:15AM SATURDAY
WoSHBODS has taken:
Gold Coast v Port Adelaide: 0.1% o76.5 @ $1.87
UPDATE 4:15PM THURSDAY
WoSHBODS has taken:
Hawthorn v Melbourne: 2% o78.5 @ $1.85
AFLW 2024 - Round 9
/Here are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of Round 9, which again include forecast wins by seven away teams. All seven are bookmaker favourites, as are the two home teams that WoSHBODS has tipped as winners.
The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:
Under 2 goals: 4 games
From 2 to under 4 goals: 4 games
Over 4 goals: 1 game
AFLW 2024 - Simulations After Round 8
/In this blog we’ll record the results of our first attempt this season to project the final home-and-away season ladder and the subsequent Finals series.
The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then so the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.
Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.
Read MoreAFLW 2024 - Round 8 Results - Again?
/WoSHBODS tipped only five from nine winners this week, but also recorded a Margin MAE of 15.1 points per game and a Totals MAE of 11 points per game to bolster in its current ability to offer value.
Those numbers took its season-long figures to 54 from 81 (67%) for accuracy (cf, 21.3 for Margin MAE), and 19.1 for Totals MAE.
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