AFLW 2024 - Simulations After Round 9
/In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Round 8 and, once again, project the final home-and-away season ladder and the subsequent Finals series.
The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.
Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.
The results this week are as shown below.
These results suggest that:
IN THE HOME AND AWAY SEASON
North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Brisbane, Fremantle, Adelaide, and Richmond are all certainties to make the Finals, and Port Adelaide are virtual certainties. Three other teams are mathematically vying for a spot, with Essendon about 80% chances, Melbourne 19% chances, and Geelong 1% chances.
Hawthorn are about 40/1 chances for the minor premiership, their winning it relying on a North Melbourne loss to Gold Coast and their own victory over Richmond.
IN FINALS
North Melbourne are heavy favourities to win the Grand Final, with Brisbane, Hawthorn, and Adelaide all roughly equal second favourites but most likely to go out in a Preliminary Final.
Richmond and Fremantle are most likely to go out in a Semi Final, and Essendon and Port Adelaide in an Elimination Final (should they make Finals at all)
