2022 - Round 20 : Overs/Unders

/

Overall, there are quite high levels of agreement this week between MoSSBODS and the two bookmakers, with all three having the same average expected Total. MoSHBODS, however, has higher expectations in a number of games, and a higher average expected Total.

There is, though, near unanimity in the four forecaster’s opinions about the most-likely highest- and lowest-scoring games and teams:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Richmond v Brisbane Lions

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Fremantle v Melbourne

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Essendon

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS, TAB, and Sportsbet: North Melbourne

  • MoSHBODS: West Coast

WAGERS

MoSSBODS has nonetheless found value in wagering in four games, opting for two overs and two unders bets.

The estimated overlays in those four games range from 7.3 to 10.6 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 19 saw honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) shared between MoSSBODS (Away Team Scores and Game Totals), and MoSHBODS (Game Margins and Home Team Scores).

That left MoSSBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Game Margins, MoSHBODS now with the season-long best MAE for Home Team Scores, and the TAB still with the season-long best MAE for Away Team Scores and Game Totals.

The leads are as follows:

Game Margins: MoSSBODS 34.7 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 3.6 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Away Team Scores: TAB 13.4 points ahead of Sportsbet (and 76.7 points ahead of MoSSBODS)

Game Totals: TAB 12.8 points ahead of Sportsbet (and 22.2 points ahead of MoSHBODS)

MoSSBODS had no wagers last week and so remains at 8 and 4 with Sportsbet, and 22 and 12 with the TAB.

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded a 7 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 93 from 162 (57%) for the season, and also a 7 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 89 from 162 (55%) for the season.

MoSHBODS recorded a 5 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 93 from 162 (59%) for the season against them, and also a 5 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 87 from 162 (54%) for the season against them.