2022 - Round 20 : Getting Warmer

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This week includes four games where the teams are separated on the competition ladder by between 3 and 5 places, and five where they are separated by exactly 7 places or 9 places.

That’s translated into a set of expected margins that includes:

  • 4 games under about a goal

  • 2 games from about two to three goals

  • 3 games from about five to six goals.

The overall average expected margin is 17.2 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 20 standards, and the lowest since 2017. It keeps the all-season average expected margin at about 18.0 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Only Home Sweet Home, ENS_Linear, and the MoS twins are offering contrarian tips this week, with the majority of those coming for Richmond on their clash against the Brisbane Lions.

The Margin Predictors have double-digit forecast ranges in five games this week, the largest being 19 points in the Swans v Giants game, followed by 14 points in the Tigers v Lions game.

Altogether, MoSHBODS_Marg has the most extreme margin forecasts in five games, and Bookie_9 and RSMP_Simple in four each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the largest range of probability estimates is just 12% points for both the Crows v Blues, and the Tigers v Lions games.

Altogether, MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in six games, and MoSHBODS_Prob in four.

WAGERS

There are just two head-to-head bets this week, sized at just over 1% and just over 2% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and three line bets ranging in size from 0.5% to 1,5% of the original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

They carry the following risks and rewards:

  • Adelaide wins: 1.1 x 1.75 x 30% + 0.5 x 0.9 x 65% = +0.9c

  • Draw: 1.1 x (2.75/2-1) x 30% + 0.5 x 0.9 x 65% = +0.4c

  • Adelaide loses by 13 points or less: -1.1 x 30% + 0.5 x 0.9 x 65% = -0.1c

  • Otherwise: -1.1 x 30% - 0.5 x 65% = -0.6c

  • Richmond wins: 2.1 x 0.95 x 30% + 1.5 x 0.8 x 65% = +1.4c

  • Draw: 2.1 x (1.95/2-1) x 30% + 1.5 x 0.8 x 65% = +0.8c

  • Richmond loses by 2 points or less: -2.1 x 30% + 1.5 x 0.8 x 65% = +0.1c

  • Otherwise: -2.1 x 30% - 1.5 x 65% = -1.6c

  • Essendon wins by 38 points or more: 0.8 x 0.9 x 65% = +0.5c

  • Otherwise: -0.8 x 65% = -0.5c

So, best case is a gain of 2.8c, and worst case a loss of 2.7c, with Richmond having a lot to say about which end of that range Investors will end nearest to.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.