2022 - Team Ratings After Round 19

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Geelong, despite losing Rating Points on MoSSBODS and barely gaining them on MoSHBODS, retained top spot on both Systems this week, while Sydney held onto second and Melbourne third.

In total there were seven moves on MoSSBODS and just two on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of only the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 12th through 18th teams. There are only two teams, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Carlton and Richmond.

Eleven teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS,.

There was only one multiple-spot mover on MoSSBODS, Port Adelaide, climbing 2 spots into 7th, while no teams moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings remains very high, and now stands at +0.9945. The correlation on defence alone is +0.991 and on offence alone +0.990.

To provide some historical context to the teams’ current Ratings, the chart below shows the Ratings of selected teams from V/AFL history after 19 rounds of their respective seasons. Bear in mind that any season with fewer than 19 home-and-away rounds will have no teams in this chart.

Sydney and Geelong are now the only teams rated higher at this point in the season than 50% of the teams in history that subsequently made the Grand Final, Melbourne having just fallen below that mark, while North Melbourne, and now West Coast, have some of the lowest-ever offensive ratings.

The animation below maps the path that each 2022 team has followed to reach its current Rating.

Or, if you prefer a static view of the teams’ combined MoSSBODS Ratings, here’s an updated version of that new chart

And here’s the updated MoSHBODS version.

On the Component Ratings, on offence, we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Swans, Cats, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with Cats, Swans, and Dogs. On defence, we find both with a Top 3 of Cats, Dockers, and Dees.

On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 5 are rated negatively on both (down 1), two are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (up 1), and 4 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.72.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked just two teams this week, and none by more than a single spot. Just Hawthorn and GWS swapped 14th and 15th places.

MARS is now most different in its thinking compared to the MoS twins about only Port Adelaide, which it ranks 6th compared to the twins’ ranking of 9th. For every other team, MARS’ ranking is no more than two spots different to at least on of the twins’.

In terms of groupings, we now have, according to MARS, roughly:

  • Geelong, Melbourne, Brisbane Lions and Sydney (1,024 to 1,032)

  • Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Richmond, and Carlton (1,008 to 1,017)

  • Collingwood, St Kilda, Gold Coast, and Essendon (993 to 1,000)

  • Hawthorn, GWS, and Adelaide (974 to 988)

  • West Coast and North Melbourne (943 to 951)

Only nine teams are rated as better-than-average by MARS, though Collingwood and St Kilda are both rated over 999..

The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at about 89 Rating Points, which is up about 3.5 Rating Points on last week..

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we still find relatively large differences for Collingwood where the team’s ladder position is well above its System Ranking, and for Port Adelaide and Sydney where the teams’ ladder positions are well below their System Rankings.

MARS currently has the outright most-extreme ranking for 10 of the teams, MoSSBODS for six, and MoSHBODS for three.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agree about the ranking of 11 teams, MoSHBODS and MARS about six teams, and MoSSBODS and MARS about four teams.

The magnitude of those differences remains small, however.

In fact, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Carlton (5 spots) has the widest range of rankings, but that the range is just two spots or less for 14 teams.

The three Systems have the same ranking for Geelong, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and West Coast.