2022 - Round 18 : Overs/Unders

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There are, again, some relatively large differences between the MoS and bookmaker Total forecasts this week, and even between the MoS twins themselves.

In the end, MoSSBODS’ average is quite close to the two bookmakers’, and MoSHBODS’ is 4 or 5 points higher.

Opinions about the highest- and lowest-scoring games and teams are as follows:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: Essendon v Gold Coast

  • MoSHBODS, TAB, and Sportsbet: North Melbourne v Richmond

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: Fremantle v Sydney

  • MoSHBODS, TAB, and Sportsbet: Melbourne v Port Adelaide

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Richmond

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS: West Coast

  • MoSHBODS, TAB, and Sportsbet: North Melbourne

WAGERS

Just two unders wagers this week, neither of them emphatic.

The estimated overlays for the wagers range from 6 to 8 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 17 saw honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) all accrue to the MoS twins, with MoSSBODS taking Game Margins, Home Team Scores, and Away Team Scores, and MoSHBODS taking Game Totals.

That left MoSSBODS with the season-long best MAE now for Game Margins and Home Team Scores, and the TAB with the season-long best MAE for Away Team Scores and Game Totals.

The leads are as follows:

Game Margins: MoSSBODS 34.8 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS 0.7 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Away Team Scores: TAB 17.9 points ahead of Sportsbet (and 95.6 points ahead of MoSSBODS)

Game Totals: TAB 13.8 points ahead of Sportsbet (and 37.4 points ahead of MoSSBODS)

MoSSBODS went 2 and 2 on its unders wagers and 1 and 0 on its overs wagers with the TAB, moving it to a 22 and 12 record for the season with them. With Sportsbet its record is still 7 and 3.

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded a 7 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 82 from 144 (56%) for the season, and a 6 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 78 from 144 (54%) for the season.

MoSHBODS recorded a 7 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 83 from 144 (58%) for the season against them, and also a 7 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 78 from 144 (54%) for the season against them.