2022 - Round 21 : Overs/Unders

/

Overall, there are reasonably high levels of agreement this week between MoSSBODS and the two bookmakers, with all three having the average expected Totals within a point of one another. MoSHBODS, however, again has higher expectations in a number of games, and about a two-point higher average expected Total.

There is some variability in the four forecaster’s opinions about the most-likely highest- and lowest-scoring games and teams:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: Hawthorn v Gold Coast

  • MoSHBODS, TAB, and Sportsbet: Brisbane Lions v Carlton

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS, MoSHBODS, and TAB: Geelong v St Kilda

  • Sportsbet: Port Adelaide v Richmond

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Sydney

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: North Melbourne

  • TAB and Sportsbet: St Kilda

WAGERS

MoSSBODS has found value in unders wagering on two games, opting out of overs wagering in two other games based on the weather forecasts for Launceston and Adelaide.

The estimated overlays in those two games range from 8.1 to 8.6 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 20 saw honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) shared amongst all four forecasters, with MoSSBODS topping Game Margins and Game Totals), MoSHBODS topping Home Team Scores, and TAB and Sportsbet sharing top on Away Team Scores.

That left MoSSBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Game Margins, MoSHBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Home Team Scores, and the TAB still with the season-long best MAE for Away Team Scores and Game Totals.

The leads are as follows:

Game Margins: MoSSBODS 46.8 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 8.2 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Away Team Scores: TAB 13.4 points ahead of Sportsbet (and 78.5 points ahead of MoSSBODS)

Game Totals: TAB 12.8 points ahead of Sportsbet (and 17.2 points ahead of MoSHBODS)

MoSSBODS had four wagers last week, all with the TAB, landing 1 of 2 unders wagers, and 1 of 2 overs wagers. That moved it to 24 and 14 with the TAB and left it at 8 and 4 with Sportsbet.

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded a 6 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 98 from 171 (57%) for the season, and also a 6 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 95 from 171 (56%) for the season.

MoSHBODS recorded a 4 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 97 from 171 (57%) for the season against them, and also a 4 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 91 from 171 (53%) for the season against them.