2022 - Round 21 : Keys to the Finals Door

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This week includes a remarkable seven games where the teams are separated on the competition ladder by between 1 and 4 places, one where they are separated by exactly 7 places, and one where they are separated by exactly 14 places.

That’s translated into a set of expected margins that includes seven sized at about two-and-a-half goals or less, and two sized at about six-and-a-half or seven-and-a-half goals.

The overall average expected margin is 16.3 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 21 standards, and the lowest in the history of the data shown here. It drops the all-season average expected margin to just under 18.0 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Only Home Sweet Home, Consult The Ladder, and the RSMP twins are offering contrarian tips this week, with the majority of those coming for Gold Coast in their clash against Hawthorn.

The Margin Predictors have double-digit forecast ranges in five games this week, the largest being 19 points in the Roos v Swans game, followed by 14 points in the Eagles v Crows game.

Altogether, MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg have the most extreme margin forecasts in four games, and Bookie_9 and ENS_Linear in three each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the largest range of probability estimates is just 11% points for the Eagles v Crows v Blues games.

Altogether, in a rare show of bravery, Bookie_OE has the most extreme probability estimates in six games, and MoSSBODS_Prob and MoSHBODS_Prob in four each.

WAGERS

There is just one head-to-head bet this week, sized at just under 5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and two line bets sized at 0.1% and 0.6% of the original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

They carry the following risks and rewards:

  • Sydney wins by 46 points or more: 0.1 x 0.9 x 65% = +0.06c

  • Otherwise: -0.1 x 65% = -0.065c

  • Brisbane Lions win: 4.7 x 0.43 x 30% = +0.6c

  • Draw: 4.7 x (1.43/2-1) x 30% = -0.4c

  • Otherwise: -4.7 x 30% = -1.4c

  • Adelaide wins by 6 points or more: 0.6 x 0.9 x 65% = +0.4c

  • Otherwise: -0.6 x 65% = -0.4c

So, best case is a gain of about 1.1c, and worst case a loss of about 1.9c, with Brisbane Lions having a lot to say about which of those outcomes is to be Investors’ fate.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.