2022 - Round 19 : Much Quieter

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This week includes seven games where the teams are separated on the competition ladder by between 7 and 10 places, and just two where they’re separated by 4 or 5 places.

That’s not translated into a slew of large expected margins, though, with 5 games expected to be won by under 16 points, and the remaining 4 games by under 31 points.

The overall average expected margin is 15.9 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 19 standards, but slightly higher than last year’s and 2019’s 14.1 points per game. It lowers the all-season average expected margin to 18.0 points per game, which is looking like it’ll be the highest home-and-away season average since 2018.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Only Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder are offering contrarian tips this week, so there’ll not be much meaningful movement on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard.

The Margin Predictors have double-digit forecast ranges in five games this week, the largest being 16 points in the Eagles v Saints game, followed by 15 points in the Roos v Hawks game.

Altogether, Bookie_9 has the most extreme margin forecasts in eight games, and MoSHBODS_Marg in four.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the largest range of probability estimates is just 10% points for both the Power v Cats and the Eagles v Saints games. There’s unlikely to be much movement on that Leaderboard either, then.

Altogether, MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in seven games, and Bookie_LPSO in five.

WAGERS

There are just two head-to-head bets this week, both sized at just over 1% of the original Head-to-Head Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Each win would lift the value of the Consolidated Portfolio by about 0.6c, and each loss would knock about 0.4c off it. So, barring draws, best case is a gain of 1.2c, and worst case a loss of 0.8c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.