2022 - Round 19 : Overs/Unders

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There are high levels of agreement this week between the MoS twins and the two bookmakers, with MoSSBODS’ average expected Total just a point less than the bookmakers’, and MoSHBODS’ expected Total just two points higher.

That harmony is reflected in the collective opinions about the highest- and lowest-scoring games and teams:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Port Adelaide v Geelong

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Sydney

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Brisbane Lions

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Adelaide

WAGERS

The harmony is also reflected in the fact that we’ve no unders or overs wagers at all this week.

The estimated overlays for all nine games range from just under 1 to just under 6 points, which are insufficiently large to justify a bet.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 18 saw honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) spread across MoSSBODS (Game Margins and Home Team Scores), the TAB (Game Totals), and Sportsbet (Away Team Scores).

That left MoSSBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Game Margins and Home Team Scores, and the TAB with the season-long best MAE for Away Team Scores and Game Totals.

The leads are as follows:

Game Margins: MoSSBODS 40.7 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS 6.2 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Away Team Scores: TAB 16.4 points ahead of Sportsbet (and 101.4 points ahead of MoSSBODS)

Game Totals: TAB 16.8 points ahead of Sportsbet (and 41.8 points ahead of MoSHBODS)

MoSSBODS went 1 and 1 on its unders wagers with Sportsbet, moving its record to 8 and 4 with them for the season. Its record with the TAB remains at 22 and 12 .

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded a 4 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 86 from 153 (56%) for the season, and also a 4 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 82 from 153 (54%) for the season.

MoSHBODS recorded a 5 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 88 from 153 (58%) for the season against them, and a 4 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 82 from 153 (54%) for the season against them.