2023 - Round 17 : A Few Mismatches

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Two-thirds of this week’s games pit teams no more than six ladder positions apart. We have:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are 2.5 and 14.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by two or three ladder positions and where the lines are 7.5 and 8.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by five or six ladder positions and where the lines are 11.5 and 27.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by eight or 10 ladder positions and where the lines are 30.5 to 48.5

  • One game where the teams are separated by 15 ladder positions and where the line is an average-boosting 80.5

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 5.7 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.93.

The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 25.7 points per game, which is up by over four-and-a-half points on the Round 16 average, and by over 5 points on the all-time average for Round 17s. It leaves the all-Season average at 18.4 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 16

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Port Adelaide, despite their after-the-siren win, didn’t impress the MoS twins this week, allowing Brisbane Lions to close the gap to them on MoSSBODS and move in front of them on MoSHBODS.

In other moves, Melbourne retained 3rd on both Systems, and Collingwood climbed into 4th, rising 3 spots on MoSSBODS, and 2 spots on MoSHBODS.

In total, 11 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 12 changed places on MoSHBODS.

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2023 - Round 16 Results - Giving a Little Back

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With the draw giving everyone a free half-tip, it was six-and-a-halfs and seven-and-a-halfs all round this week (except for Home Sweet Home) but with MoSHPlay_Marg the only one of the MoS trio bagging the seven-and-a-half, we now have a three-way tie at the top of the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard involving all three of them.

They are on 92 from 135 (68%) and a single tip ahead of ENS_Linear and RSMP_Simple.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 6.8 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 88.1 from 135 (65%).

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2023 - Round 16 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4PM SUNDAY

For the last game of the round, MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 53 points

UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 10 points

UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Carlton by 17 points

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

Port Adelaide by 9 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY

Crows by 41 and Dogs by 17 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

It’s the Swans by 10 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on the remainder of Round 16

UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Lions by 19 points

UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay is currently forecasting a 16 point Lions win.

2023 - Round 16 : Normal Service Resumed

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This week’s full breakfast can be neatly described using ladder positions and expected margins as follows:

  • One game where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the line is 14.5

  • Three game where the teams are separated by four ladder positions and where the lines range from 1.5 to 15.5

  • Three games where the teams are separated by nine ladder positions and where the lines range from 10.5 to 41.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by either 10 or 13 ladder positions and where the lines range from 25.5 to 51.5

On average, the opposing teams are separated by a sizeable 7 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.92.

The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 21.1 points per game, which is up by over two-and-a-half points on the Round 15 average, but down by about 2 points on the all-time average for Round 16s. It leaves the all-Season average at just under 18 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 15

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There were yet more big moves on the MoS Rating Systems this week, but no changes in the agreed Top and Bottom 3, which remain Power, Dees, and Lions for the apex, and Hawks, Roos, and Eagles fro the nadir.

The biggest movers on MoSSBODS were Sydney (up 5 into 4th), Gold Coast (up 3 into 8th), and Collingwood (down 3 into 7th, despite winning), and on MoSHBODS was Sydney (up 5 into 5th). No other teams moved by more than 2 places on either System. In total, nine teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 10 changed places on MoSHBODS.

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2023 - Round 15 : A Second Half-Dozen

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This week’s fare can be neatly described using ladder positions and expected margins as follows:

  • One game where the teams are separated by one ladder positions and where the line is 3.5

  • One game where the teams are separated by three ladder positions and where the line is 58.5

  • Three games where the teams are separated by between five and seven ladder positions and where the lines range from 3.5 to 24.5

(Note that I’m using a competition ladder that uses match ratio to adjust for byes)

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 4.7 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.66.

The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 18.5\7 points per game, which is up by almost 6 points on the Round 14 average, but down by about 2 points on the all-time average for Round 15s. It leaves the all-Season average at just under 18 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 14

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There was again quite the shakeup at the top of the Leaderboard for both Systems, but moreso for MoSHBODS, which ended with both Systems agreeing about the order for the six highest-rated teams. That includes Port Adelaide in 1st, Melbourne in 2nd, and Brisbane Lions in 3rd.

After a similar rethinking in relation to the other end of the Leaderboard, the two Systems now also agree about the ordering of the five lowest-ranked teams.

In total, 11 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 13 changed places on MoSHBODS with the lone big mover on MoSSBODS being Richmond, up three spots into 8th. On MoSHBODS, Carlton rose four spots to 9th, and St Kilda fell four spots to 12th. No other teams moved by more than two spots on either System.

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2023 - Round 14 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Dogs by 31 points.

UPDATE 1PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Blues by 14 points.


UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Tigers by 7 points.

UPDATE 3:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay ends at GWS by 16 points.

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Brisbane Lions by 23 points.

UPDATE 8:30PM THURSDAY

A first look from MoSHPlay at the remainder of the round, and it doesn’t like what it sees in the Fremantle matchup against the Giants.

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 13 points

UPDATE 11PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay has the Thursday game as Port Adelaide by 14 points

2023 - Round 14 : Happy Half-Dozen

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This even more shortened week can be neatly described using ladder positions and expected margins as follows:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by four ladder positions and where the lines are 1.5 and 3.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by seven ladder positions and where the lines are 4.5 and 10.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by nine ladder positions and where the lines are 28.5 and 30.5

(Note that I’m using a competition ladder that uses match ratio to adjust for byes)

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 6.7 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.82.

The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 12.7 points per game, which is down by over 4 points on the Round 13 average, and by over 10 points on the all-time average for Round 14s. It moves the all-Season average to 17.7 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 13

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There was considerable movement at the top of both Systems’ Leaderboards this week, which ended with MoSSBODS having a Top 3 of Port Adelaide, Melbourne, and Brisbane Lions, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and Geelong.

In total, nine teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 11 changed places on MoSHBODS with the lone big mover on MoSSBODS being Fremantle, down three spots into 13th. On MoSHBODS there was carnage, and we had Adelaide up six spots, Port Adelaide and Richmond up three spots, Brisbane Lions, Collingwood and Sydney all down three spots, and Carlton and Fremantle down four spots.

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2023 - Round 13 Results - Resurgent MoSHPlay

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Four of the eight bookmakers’ early market favourites won this week, but some contrarian tips by MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg resulted in their scoring only two and surrendering their lead over RSMP_Simple. All three of them are now tied on 74.5 from 114 (65%) and are just one tip ahead of Bookie Knows Best, ENS_Linear, MoSHPlay_Marg, and RSMP_Weighted.

The all-Tipster average for the round was just 3.6 from 8, which took the all-season figure to 71.6 from 114 (63%).

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2023 - Round 13 : MoSHPlay

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Update 2:45PM MONDAY

MoSHPlay has landed at Dees by 1 point

Update 11:30PM SUNDAY

Pies by a point, according to MoSHPlay


Update 6:30PM SUNDAY

Blues by 6 points, according to MoSHPlay

Update 6:45PM SATURDAY

Richmond by 7 points, according to MoSHPlay

Update 3:45PM SATURDAY

Adelaide by 10 goals, according to MoSHPlay


Update 1:15PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Lions by 14 points

Update 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Port by 1 point

Update 7PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on all but the final game of the round

Update 6:45PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 9 points


Update 6:45PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s initial view of the Thursday night game is Swans by 8 points