2023 - Team Ratings After Round 16

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Port Adelaide, despite their after-the-siren win, didn’t impress the MoS twins this week, allowing Brisbane Lions to close the gap to them on MoSSBODS and move in front of them on MoSHBODS.

In other moves, Melbourne retained 3rd on both Systems, and Collingwood climbed into 4th, rising 3 spots on MoSSBODS, and 2 spots on MoSHBODS.

In total, 11 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 12 changed places on MoSHBODS.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9922 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.6 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Power, Lions, and Crows, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Lions, Power, and Crows. On defence MoSSBODS still has a Top 3 of Dees, Power, and Lions, while MoSHBODS now has it as Dees, Pies, and Blues.

MoSSBODS still has 10 teams rated as above average on offence, while MoSHBODS now has 10 as well. MoSSBODS also still has 12 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS now has only 10.

To put the latest MoSSBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of all teams after Round 16 across V/AFL history.

Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, and Melbourne are now the only teams with a Combined Rating in the top 50% of teams that eventually went on to make the Grand Final. West Coast, despite a better effort against the Saints continue to be around the lowest-ever rated teams after Round 16 of a home-and-away season.

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current Rating.

On MoSSBODS, 9 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 5 are rated negatively on both (no change), 1 is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 3 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.75, which is a little lower than last week.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked all but the bottom 3 teams this week, which included:

  • elevating Collingwood from 4th to 1st

  • elevating Brisbane Lions from 5th to 2nd

  • elevating Carlton from 14th to 10th

  • demoting Richmond from 6th to 9th

There are now 11 teams rated better-than-average by MARS with Fremantle falling below the necessary mark this week to 998. Essendon at 999 are well within range.

The Rating gap between first and last now stands at a season-high 90 Rating Points, while that between first and eighth stands at only just under 21 Rating Points. The gap between first and fifth is now just under 6 Rating Points.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: St Kilda and Essendon

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Geelong, Sydney, Carlton, and Richmond

MARS and MoSSBODS this week provide the most outlying rankings at seven, although MoSHBODS is only just behind on six. MARS is particularly different in terms of its ranking of Collingwood, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, and Gold Coast.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of only five teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about eight teams, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now about seven teams.

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Gold Coast and Port Adelaide (4 spots) now have the widest range of rankings, and that there are now only four teams for whom the rankings span a range of more than two spots.

There are also now four teams that the Systems unanimously rank the same way: Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Melbourne, and West Coast.