2023 - Round 17 : A Few Mismatches

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Two-thirds of this week’s games pit teams no more than six ladder positions apart. We have:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are 2.5 and 14.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by two or three ladder positions and where the lines are 7.5 and 8.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by five or six ladder positions and where the lines are 11.5 and 27.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by eight or 10 ladder positions and where the lines are 30.5 to 48.5

  • One game where the teams are separated by 15 ladder positions and where the line is an average-boosting 80.5

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 5.7 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.93.

The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 25.7 points per game, which is up by over four-and-a-half points on the Round 16 average, and by over 5 points on the all-time average for Round 17s. It leaves the all-Season average at 18.4 points per game.

To the tips …

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

This week’s underdog support comes from Home Sweet Home in two games, Consult The Ladder in two more, the RSMP twins in one game, MoSHBODS_Marg in one game, and MoSSBODS_Marg in two.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in four games, including 29 points in the Lions v Eagles game, 19 points in the Saints v Dees, and Cats v Roos games, and 14 points in the Dockers v Blues game.

MoSSBODS_Marg and Bookie_9 have Extreme Predictor status in six games, and Bookie_3 in three.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only two games with a double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Saints v Dees (16% points) and Dockers v Blues (15% points).

MoSSBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in eight games, and Bookie_LPSO in six.

WAGERS

Round 17 will make for a quiet week for Investors, with a lone head-to-head wager and two line wagers completing the menu.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

So, we have:

WESTERN BULLDOGS

  • Win: 1.3% x 1.55 x 30% = +0.6c

  • Draw: 1.3% x (2.55/2 - 1) x 30% = +0.1c

  • Lose: -1.3% x 30% = -0.4c

MELBOURNE

  • Win by 15 points or more: 1.4% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.8c

  • Otherwise: -1.4% x 65% = -0.9c

CARLTON

  • Win, Draw, or Lose by 1 to 8 points: 1.7% x 0.9 x 65% = +1c

  • Otherwise: -1.7% x 65% = -1.1c

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by 2.4c, while a worst case set would lop almost 2.5c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.