2023 - Round 16 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins have broadly similar ideas about average Game Totals this week, but with some different views at the individual game level.

As highests and lowests, we have:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Adelaide v North Melbourne

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Western Bulldogs v Fremantle

  • TAB: Gold Coast v Collingwood

  • Sportsbet: Melbourne v GWS

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: Adelaide

  • Bookmakers: St Kilda

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

Investors have four wagers this week, three unders and one over, after declining an over on the Essendon v Port Adelaide game because of forecast rain.

The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers are between about 7 and 13 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) this week were as follows:

  • Game Margins: MoSSBODS

  • Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet

  • Game Totals: TAB

That left three of the four titles in the same hands as last week, with Sportsbet drawing level with the TAB for Game Totals. The leads are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 26 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 52 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Home Team Scores: TAB 14 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 49 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 4 points ahead of MoSSBODS, and 16 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: Sportsbet and TAB level, 14 points ahead of MoSSBODS, and 17 points ahead of MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS had two wagers last week, a successful unders wager and an unsuccessful overs wager, both with the TAB.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 3 from 6 against both bookmakers and MoSHBODS landed 2 from 6 against both bookmakers.

That moved MoSSBODS to a 64 from 126 (51%) record against the TAB, and a 61 from 126 (48% ) record against Sportsbet, and moved MoSHBODS to a 68 from 126 (54%) record against the TAB, and a 67 from 126 (53%) record against Sportsbet.

ACCURACY by estimated overlay

Here’s an update on the relationship between estimated overlays and outcomes.

For background and information about how to read this chart, see this blog.