2023 - Round 16 : Normal Service Resumed

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This week’s full breakfast can be neatly described using ladder positions and expected margins as follows:

  • One game where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the line is 14.5

  • Three game where the teams are separated by four ladder positions and where the lines range from 1.5 to 15.5

  • Three games where the teams are separated by nine ladder positions and where the lines range from 10.5 to 41.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by either 10 or 13 ladder positions and where the lines range from 25.5 to 51.5

On average, the opposing teams are separated by a sizeable 7 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.92.

The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 21.1 points per game, which is up by over two-and-a-half points on the Round 15 average, but down by about 2 points on the all-time average for Round 16s. It leaves the all-Season average at just under 18 points per game.

To the tips …

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

This week’s underdog support comes from Home Sweet Home in five games, and the MoS twins in two with the latter both preferring the Swans and the Suns over the Cats and the Pies.

(The twins’ relative lack of enthusiasm about the Pies is discussed more in this blog)

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in all but two of the nine games, including 22 points in the West Coast v St Kilda game, 21 points in the Gold Coast v Collingwood game, and 18 points in the Sydney v Geelong game.

Bookie_3 has Extreme Predictor status in five games, and RSMP_Simple, ENS_Linear, and MoSHBODS_Marg in three each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are three games with a double-digit percentage point forecast range, including 22% points for Gold Coast v Collingwood, and 18% points for Sydney v Geelong.

Bookie_LPSO and both the MoS twins have Extreme Predictor status in four games each.

WAGERS

This week, the MoS twins opinions have resulted in two head-to-head and three line wagers, the head-to-head bets sized at 1.2% and 1.8% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line bets are sized 0.6%, 1%, and 4.5% of the Original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

So, we have:

SYDNEY

  • Win: 1.8% x 1.12 x 30% + 1% x 0.9 x 65% = +1.2c

  • Draw: 1.8% x (2.12/2 - 1) x 30% + 1% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.6c

  • Lose by 1 to 4 points: -1.8% x 30% + 1% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.1c

  • Lose by 5 points or more: -1.8% x 30% - 1% x 65% = -1.2c

GOLD COAST

  • Win: 1.2% x 1.65 x 30% + 4.5% x 0.9 x 65% = +3.2c

  • Draw: 1.2% x (2.65/2 - 1) x 30% + 4.5% x 0.9 x 65% = +2.7c

  • Lose by 1 to 12 points: -1.2% x 30% + 4.5% x 0.9 x 65% = +2.3c

  • Lose by 13 points or more: -1.2% x 30% - 4.5% x 65% = -3.3c

PORT ADELAIDE

  • Lose by 1 to 8 points: 0.6% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.4c

  • Lose by 9 points or more: -0.6% x 65% = -0.4c

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by almost 5c, while a worst case set would lop almost 5c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.