2023 - Round 15 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins, if anything, are slightly more optimistic about likely average total scoring this week, although their opinions about each game aren’t much different from the bookmakers’.

As highests and lowests, we have:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: Collingwood v Adelaide

  • MoSHBODS and TAB: Sydney v West Coast

  • Sportsbet: Gold Coast v Hawthorn

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: St Kilda v Brisbane Lions

  • Bookmakers: Geelong v Melbourne

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Sydney

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

Investors have two wagers this week, one under and one over, after declining an over on the Thursday game because of forecast rain.

The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers are Just over 6, and 11 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) this week were as follows:

  • Game Margins: MoSSBODS

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: TAB

  • Game Totals: MoSHBODS

That left three of the four titles in the same hands as last week, with the Sportsbet regaining the lead for Game Totals from TAB (having surrendered it only last week). The leads are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 27 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 55 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Home Team Scores: TAB 14 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 55 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 13 points ahead of MoSSBODS, and 27 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: Sportsbet 5 points ahead of the TAB, and 7 points ahead of MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS had one wager last week, an under with Sportsbet that lost and that took MoSSBODS to 17 and 17 for the season.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 2 from 6 against the TAB and 1 from 6 against Sportsbet, while MoSHBODS landed 2 from 6 against both bookmakers.

That moved MoSSBODS to a 61 from 120 (51%) record against the TAB, and a 58 from 120 (48% ) record against Sportsbet, and moved MoSHBODS to a 66 from 120 (55%) record against the TAB, and a 65 from 120 (54%) record against Sportsbet.

ACCURACY by estimated overlay

Here’s an update on the relationship between estimated overlays and outcomes.

For background and information about how to read this chart, see this blog.