2023 - Round 14 : Happy Half-Dozen

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This even more shortened week can be neatly described using ladder positions and expected margins as follows:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by four ladder positions and where the lines are 1.5 and 3.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by seven ladder positions and where the lines are 4.5 and 10.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by nine ladder positions and where the lines are 28.5 and 30.5

(Note that I’m using a competition ladder that uses match ratio to adjust for byes)

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 6.7 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.82.

The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 12.7 points per game, which is down by over 4 points on the Round 13 average, and by over 10 points on the all-time average for Round 14s. It moves the all-Season average to 17.7 points per game.

To the tips …

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

This week’s underdog support comes from Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder in two games, and the RSMP and MoS twins in one game each.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in two of the six games, including 16 points in the Carlton v Gold Coast game, and 14 points in the North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs game.

RSMP_Simple has Extreme Predictor status in four games, and MoSHBODS_Marg in three.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there is only one game with a double-digit percentage point range: Carlton v Gold Coast (16% points).

MoSSBODS_Prob, MoSHBODS_Prob, and Bookie_LPSO have Extreme Predictor status in three games each.

WAGERS

This week, there are just two head-to-head and one line wager.

The two head-to-head wagers represent just over 4% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the lone line wager just under 2% of the original Line Fund. All three wagers, only one of which is on an underdog, represent about 2.5% of the original Combined Portfolio.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

This week, we revert to hand calculations:

GWS

  • Win: 1.8% x 1.1 x 30% = +0.6c

  • Draw: 1.8% x (2.1/2 - 1) x 30% = +0.03c

  • Lose: 1.8% x 30% = -0.6c

CARLTON

  • Win by 2 points or more: 2.3% x 0.86 x 30% + 1.7% x 0.90 x 65% = +1.6c

  • Win by 1 point: 2.3% x 0.86 x 30% - 1.7% x 65% = -0.5c

  • Draw: 2.3% x (1.86/2 - 1) x 30% - 1.7% x 65% = -1.2c

  • Lose: -2.3% x 30% - 1.7% x 65% = -1.8c

Carlton, then, carries the most risk for Investors this weekend, with the difference between best and worst results for them equalling 3.4% of the original Combined Portfolio. GWS, in contrast, represent only a 1.2c swing.

A best-case set of results will see the Combined Portfolio increase by just over 2c, and a worst-case set will see it fall by just under 2.5c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.