2023 - Round 14 : Overs/Unders

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Once again the MoS twins have roughly the same expectations about likely average total scoring in the round but variability of opinion about individual games.

(NB: An earlier version of this table carried the wrong team names against each match in the section on bookmaker prices)

As highests and lowests, we have:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Port Adelaide v Geelong

  • Bookmakers: North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs (also Brisbane Lions v Sydney for the TAB)

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Richmond v St Kilda (also Carlton v Gold Coast for the TAB)

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Western Bulldogs

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: North Melbourne (also Sydney for Sportsbet)

WAGERS

Investors have only one wager this week, an under, after declining an over on the Thursday game because of forecast rain.

(NB: An earlier version of this table carried the wrong team names against each match)

The estimated overlay for the game where we’ve a wager is about 8 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) this week were as follows:

  • Game Margins: TAB and Sportsbet

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS

That left three of the four titles in the same hands as last week, with the TAB regaining the lead for Game Totals from Sportsbet. The leads are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 34 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 59 points ahead of Sportsbet

Home Team Scores: TAB 12 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 65 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 12 points ahead of MoSSBODS, and 31 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: TAB 2 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 6 points ahead of MoSSBODS

MoSSBODS had two wagers last week, an over with the TAB and an under with Sportsbet, both of which won. That took MoSSBODS to 17 and 16 for the season.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 6 from 8 against both bookmakers, and MoSHBODS landed 7 from 8 against both bookmakers.

That moved MoSSBODS to a 59 from 114 (52%) record against the TAB, and a 57 from 114 (50% ) record against Sportsbet, and moved MoSHBODS to a 64 from 114 (56%) record against the TAB, and a 63 from 114 (55%) record against Sportsbet.

ACCURACY by estimated overlay

Here’s an update on the relationship between estimated overlays and outcomes.

For background and information about how to read this chart, see this blog.