2023 - Round 13 : Yet More Action

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There are a large number of mismatches this week, if ladder position is anything to go by. We have:

  • Only one game where the teams are separated by just one ladder position

  • Five games where they’re separated by between six and nine spots

  • Two games where they’re separated by exactly 11 spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly 16 spots

On average, the opposing teams are separated by a whopping 8.3 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.88.

That average bookmaker expected margin is, unsurprisingly, 23.6 points per game, which is up by over 8 points on the Round 10 average, and roughyl equal to the all-time average for Round 11s. It drives the all-Season average up to 17.6 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 12

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There is still confusion and contention amongst and between the twins, with Port Adelaide retaining top spot this week on MoSSBODS, and Brisbane Lions doing the same on MoSHBODS.

Some movement did occur in the respective Top 5s, however, with Melbourne and Collingwood relegating Geelong to 5th on MoSSBODS, and Melbourne similarly relegating Geelong but only to 4th on MoSHBODS as neither System felt that the Cats did enough against the Dogs to retain their previous rating.

In total, 11 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 9 changed places on MoSHBODS with the big movers being Gold Coast, who rose four spots on MoSSBODS into 9th, and three spots on MoSHBODS into 11th. No other team moved by more than two spots on MoSSBODS, but MoSHBODS also saw Essendon fall by three spots to 14th, and Adelaide fall by four spots to 13th.

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2023 - Round 12 Results - Margins Easy, Winners Harder

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Only four of the seven bookmakers’ favourites won this week, which meant that the fives from MoSHBODS_Marg, MoSHBODS_Marg, ENS_Linear, and RSMP_Simple was enough to move them all a tip further ahead of Bookie Knows Best. The MoS twins, now on 72.5 from 106 (68%), continue to lead ENS_Linear and RSMP_Simple by two tips.

The all-Tipster average for the round was just 4.7 from 7, which took the all-season figure to 68.1 from 106 (64%).

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2023 - Round 12 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4:00PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Dons by 34 points


UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

It’s the Tigers by 3 points, according to MoSHPlay


UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

Dogs by 6 points and Crows by 9 points, according to MoSHPlay


UPDATE 3:45PM SATURDAY

Pies by 63 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

Melbourne by 11 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on Round 12

2023 - Round 12 : Overs/Unders

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Apologies that this post is a little late this week but I have been travelling on business (and. frankly, if you’ve been waiting to see the models’ views before making your own bets, you’ve not been following along carefully enough).

Overall across this truncated round, the MoS twins have roughly the same expectations about likely average total scoring in Round 12, although there is, again, some variability of opinion about individual games.

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2023 - Round 12 : Byes For Now

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This week is the first of the bye rounds and so offers only seven games for the forecasters to consider.

Amongst those seven we have:

  • Only one game where the teams are separated by just one ladder position

  • Two games where they’re separated by either four or five spots

  • Two games where they’re separated by exactly 9 spots

  • Two game where they’re separated by either 14 or 17 spots

On average, the opposing teams are separated by a whopping 8.4 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.97.

That average bookmaker expected margin is, as it was last week, 23.6 points per game, which is up by about two point on the all-time average for Round 12s. It drives the all-Season average up to 18 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 11

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Geelong has finally surrendered top spot on both Systems, but to Port Adelaide on MoSSBODS and to Brisbane Lions on MoSHBODS.

In fact, whilst the Top 5 teams are the same on both Systems, only Geelong, now in 3rd, is in the same place on both.

In total, 12 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 9 changed places on MoSHBODS with the big mover being St Kilda, who fell three spots on MoSHBODS into 10th. No other team moved by more than two spots on either System.

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2023 - Round 11 Results - Good Round for the Dogs (but not The Dogs)

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Only three of the bookmakers’ favourites won this week, which meant that MoSSBODS_Marg’s 4 from 9 was good enough to give it a share of the lead with MoSHBODS_Marg, both of them now on 67.5 from 99 (68%).

They are both two tips ahead of Bookie Knows Best, ENS_Linear, and RSMP_Simple.

The all-Tipster average for the round was just 3.6 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 63.4 from 99 (64%).

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2023 - Round 11 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 4:40PM

Lions by 10 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:45PM

Tigers by 11 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE SUNDAY 11:45AM

A quick MoSHPlay update for today’s games as I’m unlikely to be able to post once the finals teams are announced for at least some of the games.

UPDATE SATURDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay ends at Dogs by 16 points and Dons by 38 points.

UPDATE SATURDAY 4:15PM

MoSHPlay ends at Cats by 37 points.

UPDATE SATURDAY 1:30PM

Saints by 19 points and Dees by 28 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM

Swans by 4 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM

Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts about Round 11

2023 - Round 11 : Action

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There are a large number of mismatches this week, if ladder position is anything to go by. We have:

  • Only one game where the teams are separated by just one ladder position

  • Five games where they’re separated by between six and nine spots

  • Two games where they’re separated by exactly 11 spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly 16 spots

On average, the opposing teams are separated by a whopping 8.3 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.88.

That average bookmaker expected margin is, unsurprisingly, 23.6 points per game, which is up by over 8 points on the Round 10 average, and roughyl equal to the all-time average for Round 11s. It drives the all-Season average up to 17.6 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 10

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Geelong has clung onto top spot on both Systems this week, with Port Adelaide taking 2nd on MoSSBODS and Brisbane Lions doing the same on MoSHBODS as Collingwood, despite winning, failed to impress either System and dropped Rating Points.

In total, 12 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 10 changed places on MoSHBODS with the big movers being Western Bulldogs and Fremantle (both up 4 on MoSSBODS), and Adelaide (down 5 on MoSSBODS and down 4 on MoSHBODS).

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2023 - Round 10 Results - It'll Do

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On forecasting at least, the bookmaker-based tipsters and predictors had a little revenge this week, although one of the MoS trio still heads all three Leaderboards.

On Head-to-Head tipping, all nine Tipsters snagged 6 from 9, which of course meant there was no change in the Leaderboard ordering. MoSHBODS_Marg therefore still leads MoSSBODS_Marg by a single tip, and Bookie Knows best by two tips.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 6 from 9 and, for the season, now stands at 59.8 from 90 (67%).

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2023 - Round 10 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4PM SUNDAY

The final teams announcement has moved MoSHPlay to Saints by 7 points

UPDATE 2:30PM SUNDAY

It’s the Pies by 9 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 1PM SUNDAY

It’s the Hawks by 32 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

Lions by 30 points and Tigers by 11, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 3:45PM SATURDAY

Cats by 11 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 1:30PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 8 points (and still Swans by 29 points)

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Dees by 8 points

UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s first thoughts about Round 10

2023 - Round 10 : A Little More Spice

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If ladder position is anything to go on, we have quite the round coming up next weekend where we have:

  • One game where the teams are separated by just one ladder position (sure, it’s 17th and 18th, and the expected margin is 4 goals, but still …)

  • Three games where they’re separated by exactly two spots (although one of those games has a six-and-a-half goal expected margin)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly three spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly five spots

  • Two game where they’re separated by exactly eight spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly 10 spots (but the expected margin is only a goal)

On average, the opposing teams are separated by only 4.5 ladder spots this week, but the correlation between expected margin and ladder position difference is only +0.5.

The week’s average bookmaker expected margin is 15.7 points per game, which is down by 7.5 points on the Round 9 average, and just under 8 points lower than the all-time average for Round 10s. It drives the all-Season average down to 17 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 9

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Round 9 results left the Top 2 teams in tact on both Systems, although the Cats shed points on both Systems while the Pies shed them on MoSSBODS but gained them on MoSHBODS.

Further down, there was more movement on both, with Adelaide climbing three places, Port Adelaide and Gold Coast climbing two, and Essendon falling two spots on MoSSBODS. On MoSHBODS, Western Bulldogs climbed three spots, and Adelaide climbed two, while Sydney and St Kilda each fell by two places.

In total, 11 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 11 also changed places on MoSHBODS.

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2023 - Round 9 Results - Forecasting is Hard (Except When it's Not)

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The MoS trio are still in the Top 3 spots on probability prediction, now fill three of the top five spots on margin prediction, and still hold the Top 2 spots on head-to-head tipping, despite a somewhat challenging round for forecasters.

Head-to-head tipping wasn’t too bad, with seven favourites taking the points, though MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg were wrong in their lone contrarian tip, which saw them bag only 6 from 9 and surrender a tip to Bookie Knows Best. MoSHBODS_Marg reamins a tip ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg, but is now only two tips ahead of Bookie Knows Best.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 6.2 from 9 and, for the season, it now stands at 53.8 from 81 (67%).

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2023 - Round 9 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 33 points

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

Brisbane Lions by 26 points and Carlton by 6 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

Melbourne by 43 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 1:45PM SATURDAY

And Port Adelaide by 33 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 1:30PM SATURDAY

Swans by 21 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s first thoughts about the round