2023 - Team Ratings After Round 11
/Geelong has finally surrendered top spot on both Systems, but to Port Adelaide on MoSSBODS and to Brisbane Lions on MoSHBODS.
In fact, whilst the Top 5 teams are the same on both Systems, only Geelong, now in 3rd, is in the same place on both.
In total, 12 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 9 changed places on MoSHBODS with the big mover being St Kilda, who fell three spots on MoSHBODS into 10th. No other team moved by more than two spots on either System.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9902.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Power, Lions, and Cats, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Lions, Cats, and Dees. On defence, MoSSBODS has a Top 3 of Dees, Pies, and Power, while MoSHBODS has it as Pies, Dogs, and Saints.
Both Systems still have nine teams rated as above average on offence. MoSSBODS has 12 rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS has 11 teams rated this way.
To put the latest MoSSBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of all teams after Round 11 across V/AFL history.
Port Adelaide is now the only team with a Combined Rating in the top 50% of teams that eventually went on to make the Grand Final. West Coast continues to record new lows and is now quite close to where it finished in 2022.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current Rating.
On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 4 are rated negatively on both (no change), 2 are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.79, which is up again on last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked only seven teams this week, and none from the Top 6 or Bottom 4.
The only multiple spot movers were Sydney and Essendon, both up two places, and St Kilda, down two places.
There are now 11 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, with Essendon on 999.8 and Gold Coast on 998.5 both just missing that list.
The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at about 79 Rating Points, which is up by about another 1 Rating Point on where it was last week. The gap between first and eighth remains at just under 20 Rating Points, and that between first and fourth is under 6 Rating Points.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:
HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: St Kilda (and possibly Adelaide)
LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Geelong (and possibly Sydney and Carlton)
MARS and MoSSBODS this week provide the most outlying rankings at six each, only just ahead of MoSHBODS’ five..
Overall, this week seems to have left us with quite high levels of disagreement amongst the Systems, so much so that MoSHBODS and MARS now agree about the ranking of eight teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about eight teams, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS also about nine teams.
We an also see that disagreement if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team.
Carlton (7 spots) has the widest range of rankings, but there are now seven teams where the rankings span a range of three spots or more.
There are six teams, however, where the Systems are in complete agreement: GWS, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs and West Coast.
