2023 - Round 11 Results - Good Round for the Dogs (but not The Dogs)

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Only three of the bookmakers’ favourites won this week, which meant that MoSSBODS_Marg’s 4 from 9 was good enough to give it a share of the lead with MoSHBODS_Marg, both of them now on 67.5 from 99 (68%).

They are both two tips ahead of Bookie Knows Best, ENS_Linear, and RSMP_Simple.

The all-Tipster average for the round was just 3.6 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 63.4 from 99 (64%).

The Margin Predictors’ mean absolute errors (MAEs) were generally lower this week, and covered a range from Bookie_9’s 20.8 points per game to RSMP_Simple’s 25.8 points per game, with the all-Predictor average coming in at 23.7 points per game per Predictor.

The Leaderboard saw only quite a lot of movement, including ENS_Linear snagging 1st, MoSHBODS_Marg grabbing 2nd, and MoSHPlay_Marg being relegated into 3rd..

Log probability scores were all heavily negative this week on account of the mostly poor showing by favourites, but least negative for Bookie_OE, and most negative for MoSHPlay_Prob.

MoSSBODS_Prob still holds 1st place with Bookie_OE now in 2nd, and Bookie_LPSO retaining 3rd. MoSHPlay_Prob has fallen to last place with MoSHBODS_Prob just a single place above them.

WAGERING

As a punter, you take your luck as you find it, and I certainly think that Investors were mostly on the right side of it this week as they recorded a second successive profit, thanks largely to a late, meaningless Eagles goal on the other side of the siren.

That ensured black ink for the Line Fund, which has recorded the same colour ink as the Combined Portfolio in all but two rounds this season.

Speaking of which, the Combined Portfolio rose by 2.1c this week, the second-highest single round return of the season, and leaving it up by 9.5c on the season, that from a 19% ROT on an 0.49 turn.

(Note that I erroneously categorised one of last week’s over/under bets as a loser when, in fact, it was a collect, which is why the Combined Portfolio profit is showing as being a little higher than you might have expected)