2023 - Round 12 : Byes For Now

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This week is the first of the bye rounds and so offers only seven games for the forecasters to consider.

Amongst those seven we have:

  • Only one game where the teams are separated by just one ladder position

  • Two games where they’re separated by either four or five spots

  • Two games where they’re separated by exactly 9 spots

  • Two game where they’re separated by either 14 or 17 spots

On average, the opposing teams are separated by a whopping 8.4 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.97.

That average bookmaker expected margin is, as it was last week, 23.6 points per game, which is up by about two point on the all-time average for Round 12s. It drives the all-Season average up to 18 points per game.

To the tips …

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

This week’s underdog support comes from Home Sweet Home in two games, and the RSMP twins, the MoS twins and ENS_Linear each in a single game. All up, four of the seven games have at least one underdog supporter.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in four games, including a huge 26 points in the West Coast v Collingwood game, 22 points in the Melbourne v Carlton game, 13 points in the Western Bulldogs v Geelong game, and 11 points in the Essendon v North Melbourne game.

Bookie_9 has Extreme Predictor status in five games. No one else has it in more than two.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only two games with double-digit percentage point ranges: Melbourne v Carlton (20% points) and Western Bulldogs v Geelong (13% points).

MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in six games this week, and Bookie_LSPO in five.

WAGERS

This week, there is one head-to-head and three line wagers. The head-to-head wager is a tiny one on the Eagles at $15, and the three line bets range in size from 0.9% on Geelong through to 3.4% on West Coast.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

So, we have:

CARLTON

  • Lose by 20 points or less: 3.2c x 0.9 x 0.65 = +1.9c

  • Otherwise: -3.2c x 0.65 = -2c

WEST COAST

  • Win: 0.1c x 14 x 0.3 + 3.4c x 0.9 x 0.65 = +2.5c

  • Draw: 0.1c x (15/2-1) x 0.3 + 3.4c x 0.9 x 0.65 = +2.2c

  • Lose by 64 points or less: -0.1c x 0.3 + 3.4c x 0.9 x 0.65 = +2c

  • Otherwise: -0.1c x 0.3 - 3.4c x 0.65 = -2.2c

GEELONG

  • Lose by 6 points or less: 0.9c x 0.9 x 0.65 = +0.5c

  • Otherwise: -0.9c x 0.65 = -0.6c

West Coast clearly carries the most risk for Investors this weekend, with the difference between best and worst results for them equalling almost 5% of the original Combined Portfolio. The next-most risk is carried by Carlton (3.9%), and then Geelong (1.1c)

A best-case set of results will see the Combined Portfolio increase by just under 5c, and a worst-case set will see it fall by just under 5c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.