2023 - Round 13 : Yet More Action

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This shortened week sees few games where the two teams occupy distant postcodes on the competition ladder, but also relatively few with near neighbours. We have:

  • One game where the teams are separated by two ladder positions

  • One game where the teams are separated by three ladder positions

  • Two games where they’re separated by five ladder positions

  • Three games where they’re separated by seven or eight ladder positions

  • One game where they’re separated by 13 ladder

(Note that I’m using a competition ladder that uses match ratio to adjust for byes)

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 6.4 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.82.

That average bookmaker expected margin is 16.8 points per game, which is down by almost 7 points on the Round 12 average, and by almost 4 points on the all-time average for Round 13s. It moves the all-Season average to 17.9 points per game.

To the tips …

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

This week’s underdog support comes from Home Sweet Home in 5 games, Consult The Ladder and ENS_Linear in one, and the MoS twins in two games each.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in five of the eight games, including 19 points in the Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions game, 16 points in the Adelaide v West Coast and North Melbourne v GWS games, and 14 points in the Carlton v Essendon game.

MoSSBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in five games, and Bookie_3 in three games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are five games with double-digit percentage point ranges, including Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions (16% points), North Melbourne v GWS (14% points), and Carlton v Essendon (13% points).

MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in six games this week, and Bookie_RE in five.

WAGERS

This week, there are five head-to-head and four line wagers. Were it not for the fact that the MoS models are in silico it would be easy to characterise them as having lifted in confidence following a string of good returns.

The five head-to-head wagers represent just over 8% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the four line wagers just under 6% of the original Line Fund. All nine wagers, all but one of which are on underdogs, represent just over 6% of the original Combined Portfolio.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

This week, another real Ready Reckoner to help scythe through the complexity.

North Melbourne carries the most risk for Investors this weekend, with the difference between best and worst results for them equalling 3.4% of the original Combined Portfolio. The next-most risk is carried by Hawthorn (3.1%) and then Carlton (3%), followed by Sydney (1.4%), Western Bulldogs (1.2%), and finally Richmond (0.4%)..

A best-case set of results will see the Combined Portfolio increase by just over 6c, and a worst-case set will see it fall by just over 6c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.