2023 - Round 10 : A Little More Spice

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If ladder position is anything to go on, we have quite the round coming up next weekend where we have:

  • One game where the teams are separated by just one ladder position (sure, it’s 17th and 18th, and the expected margin is 4 goals, but still …)

  • Three games where they’re separated by exactly two spots (although one of those games has a six-and-a-half goal expected margin)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly three spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly five spots

  • Two game where they’re separated by exactly eight spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly 10 spots (but the expected margin is only a goal)

On average, the opposing teams are separated by only 4.5 ladder spots this week, but the correlation between expected margin and ladder position difference is only +0.5.

The week’s average bookmaker expected margin is 15.7 points per game, which is down by 7.5 points on the Round 9 average, and just under 8 points lower than the all-time average for Round 10s. It drives the all-Season average down to 17 points per game.

To the tips …

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

This week’s underdog support comes from Home Sweet Home (6 games), Consult The Ladder (2 games), and the MoS twins (2 games each).

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in five games, including 16 points in the Hawthorn v West Coast game, 15 points in the Port Adelaide v Melbourne, and North Melbourne v Sydney games, and 10 points in the Fremantle v Geelong, and Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast games. Two other games have ranges between 9.6 and 9.8 points, so there is quite a bit of disagreement about likely margins this week.

Bookie_3 and Bookie_9 have Extreme Predictor status in five games each this week, and MoSHBODS_Marg in three games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are three games with double-digit percentage point ranges: Port Adelaide v Melbourne (17% points), Hawthorn v West Coast (15% points), and Western Bulldogs v Adelaide (10% points).

MoSHBODS_Prob and Bookie_LPSO have the most extreme probability estimates in five games this week, and MoSSBODS_Prob and Bookie_RE in four.

WAGERS

This week, there are three head-to-head and three line wagers. There would have been a fourth line wager - on Geelong - were it not for the fact that the TAB closed the market at the exact instant I went to place the bet only to reopen a minute or so later with a less attractive margin. The same thing happened with the line bet on North Melbourne, which would otherwise have been at +40.5 points. It seems I managed to launch the wagering process just as the bookmaker was doing his or her scheduled update.

Anyway, the three head-to-head wagers represent just under 4% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the three line wagers represent just over 3% of the original Line Fund. All six wagers, which are all on underdogs, represent just over 3% of the original Combined Portfolio.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Yet another live version of the Ready Reckoner this week:

PORT ADELAIDE

  • Win: 1.7% x 1.2 x 30% + 1.5% x 0.9 x 65% = +1.5c

  • Draw: 1.7% x (2.2/2-1) x 30% + 1.5% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.9c

  • Lose by 1 to 6 points: -1.7% x 30% + 1.5% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.4c

  • Otherwise: -1.7% x 30% - 1.5% x 65% = -1.5c

NORTH MELBOURNE

  • Win: 0.4% x 5.05 x 30% + 0.5% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.9c

  • Draw: 0.4% x (6.05/2-1) x 30% + 0.5% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.5c

  • Lose by 1 to 6 points: -0.4% x 30% + 0.5% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.2c

  • Otherwise: -0.4% x 30% - 0.5% x 65% = -0.4c

ESSENDON

  • Win: 1.6% x 1.25 x 30% = +0.6c

  • Draw: 1.6% x (2.25/2-1) x 30% = +0.1c

  • Lose: -1.6% x 30% = -0.5c

WEST COAST

  • Win, Draw or Lose by 24 points or less: 1.7% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.7c

  • Otherwise: -1.7% x 0.9 x 65% = -0.8c

Port Adelaide clearly carries the most risk for Investors this weekend, with the difference between best and worst results for them equalling 3% of the original Combined Portfolio. The next-most risk is carried by West Coast (1.5%), then North Melbourne (1.3%) and Essendon (1.1%).

A best-case set of results will see the Combined Portfolio increase by 3.7c, and a worst-case set will see it fall by 3.1c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.