2023 - Team Ratings After Round 10
/Geelong has clung onto top spot on both Systems this week, with Port Adelaide taking 2nd on MoSSBODS and Brisbane Lions doing the same on MoSHBODS as Collingwood, despite winning, failed to impress either System and dropped Rating Points.
In total, 12 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 10 changed places on MoSHBODS with the big movers being Western Bulldogs and Fremantle (both up 4 on MoSSBODS), and Adelaide (down 5 on MoSSBODS and down 4 on MoSHBODS).
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9920.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Cats, Power, and Lions, and MoSHBODS still with a Top 3 of Cats, Lions, and Dees. On defence, MoSSBODS has a Top 3 of Saints, Pies, and Dees, while MoSHBODS has it as Pies, Saints, and Dogs.
Both Systems have nine teams rated as above average on offence. MoSSBODS has 12 rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS has 11 teams rated this way.
To put the latest MoSSBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of all teams after Round 10 across V/AFL history.
Geelong, and now Port Adelaide, are the only teams that have Combined Ratings in the top 50% of teams that eventually went on to make the Grand Final. West Coast is now skirting the edges of historical lows, especially amongst teams from the modern era.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current Rating.
On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 4 are rated negatively on both (no change), 2 are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (up 1), and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.78, which is up again on last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked nine teams this week, including swapping the Dees into 1st ahead of the Cats.
Further down we had small climbs for the Saints and the Dockers. and small declines for the Swans, Crows, and Suns.
At the very bottom of the rankings, we had the Roos climbing above the Eagles to claim 17th.
There are now 10 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, with Adeiaide on 998.7 just missing that list.
The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at about 78 Rating Points, which is up by about another 2 Rating Points on where it was last week. The gap between first and eighth is now under 20 Rating Points, which is about 2 Rating Points lower than it was last week.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:
HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Essendon
LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Geelong
MARS this week again provides the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for 7 of the teams. MARS is especially different in terms of its Carlton and Richmond rankings.
MoSSBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for four of the teams, and MoSHBODS for six.
MoSHBODS and MARS now agree about the ranking of six teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about nine teams, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS also about nine teams.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Carlton (6 spots) has the widest range of rankings, while 12 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots, including GWS, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and Western Bulldogs, for which all three Systems have the same ranking.
