2023 - Round 9 Results - Forecasting is Hard (Except When it's Not)
/The MoS trio are still in the Top 3 spots on probability prediction, now fill three of the top five spots on margin prediction, and still hold the Top 2 spots on head-to-head tipping, despite a somewhat challenging round for forecasters.
Head-to-head tipping wasn’t too bad, with seven favourites taking the points, though MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg were wrong in their lone contrarian tip, which saw them bag only 6 from 9 and surrender a tip to Bookie Knows Best. MoSHBODS_Marg reamins a tip ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg, but is now only two tips ahead of Bookie Knows Best.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 6.2 from 9 and, for the season, it now stands at 53.8 from 81 (67%).
The Margin Predictors’ mean absolute errors (MAEs) were all much higher this week, and covered a range from Bookie_3’s 30.9 points per game to Bookie_9’s 35.7 points per game, with the all-Predictor average coming in at 33.5 points per game per Predictor, which is more than double the Round 8 figure..
MoSHPlay_Marg’s performance was, again, enough to keep it in 1st place on the Leaderboard, but ENS_Linear did enough to jump two spots into 2nd, now just over two goals off the lead. MoSHBODS_Marg held onto 3rd, just a fraction of a point further back.
Bookie_3 was the round’s biggest climber, jumping four spots into 4th and now under 20 points off the lead.
Log probability scores were all moderately positive, with the best belonging to MoSHPlay_Prob by some distance. It, nonetheless, only held onto 2nd spot behind MoSSBODS_Prob and ahead of MoSHBODS_Prob.
WAGERING
It was another losing week for Investors this week as all three Funds turned in red ink and both the Head-to-Head and Line Funds had only one, tiny collect between them.
(NB An earlier version of this chart had the Line Fund losing both its wagers but, in fact, the Pies’ wager was a collect)
Overall, the Combined Portfolio fell by 1.1c, leaving it up 5.9c on the season, that from a 15.4% ROT on an 0.38 turn.
