2023 - Round 9 : Overs/Unders

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Overall, the MoS twins’ Totals forecasts are again quite similar to the bookmakers’ this week, but again also there is some disagreement at the individual game level.

As highests and lowests, we have:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Brisbane Lions v Essendon

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Adelaide v St Kilda

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS: Collingwood

  • MoSHBODS: Brisbane Lions

  • Bookmakers: Melbourne

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS: GWS

  • MoSHBODS and Bookmakers: Hawthorn

WAGERS

Investors have two wagers this week, both on the under.

The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve a wager are 6 and 13 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) this week were again shared around, though by no means equally, with MoSHBODS taking Game Margins, and the TAB taking Home Team Scores, Away Team Scores, and Game Totals.

MoSSBODS still holds the season-long best MAE for Game Margins, and MoSHBODS still holds it for Away Team Scores, but surrendered Game Totals to the TAB, who also still holds it for Home Team Scores.

The leads are as follows:

Game Margins: MoSSBODS 0.2 points ahead of the TAB, and 2.6 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: TAB 8 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 55 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 5.6 points ahead of the TAB, and 7 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Game Totals: TAB 1 point ahead of Sportsbet, and 10 points ahead of MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS had one wager last week - a succesful unders bet with the TAB, which took it to a 10 and 10 season record against both bookmakers combined.

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded 6 from 9 results against the TAB and Sportsbet, while MoSHBODS recorded a 5 from 9 result against the TAB and a 7 from 9 result against Sportsbet.

That moved MoSSBODS to a 35 from 72 (49%) record against the TAB, and a 34 from 72 (47% ) record against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS now has a 37 from 72 (51%) record against the TAB, and a 38 from 72 (53%) record against Sportsbet.