2023 - Round 9 : Not a Lot to Recommend It

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Again this week, a few of the bookmaker margin forecasts seem uncoupled from ladder positions.

We have

  • Sydney 11th vs Fremantle 12th (Sydney -23.5)

  • West Coast 17th vs Gold Coast 14th (West Coast +21.5)

  • Adelaide 10th vs St Kilda 3rd (Adelaide -6.5)

For the remaining games, we have, more reasonably:

  • One more game where the teams are separated by just one ladder position (where the start is 0.5 points)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly five spots (where the start is 27.5 points)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly nine spots (where the start is 23.5 points)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly 11 spots (where the start is 29.5 points)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly 12 spots (where the start is 34.5 points)

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly 16 spots (where the start is 40.5 points)

On average, then, the opposing teams are separated by over 7 ladder spots this week and the correlation between margin and ladder position difference is +0.9.

The week’s average bookmaker expected margin is 23.2 points per game, which is up by 2.5 points on the Round 8 average, and just under a point higher than the all-time average for Round 9s. It drives the all-Season average up to 17.1 points per game.

To the tips …

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

This week’s underdog support comes from Home Sweet Home (5 games), Consult The Ladder (1 game), and the MoS twins (1 game each).

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in four games, including 19 points in the Hawthorn v Melbourne game, 15 points in the North Melbourne v Port Adelaide game, 14 points in the Richmond v Geelong game, and 12 points in the West Coast v Gold Coast game.

Bookie_3 has Extreme Predictor status in five games this week, and MoSSBODS_Marg in four games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there is only one game with a double-digit percentage point range: West Coast v Gold Coast (10% points).

MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in seven games this week, and Bookie_RE in four.

WAGERS

This week, there is just one head-to-head wager for 0.8% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and three line wagers, ranging in size from 0.1% to 1.3%, and totalling 1.5% of the Line Fund

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Only the Pies wager is on a favourite and, in aggregate, all five bets represent just over 1% of the original Combined Portfolio.

Another live version of the Ready Reckoner this week:

WEST COAST

  • Win: 0.8% x 2.52 x 30% + 0.1% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.7c

  • Draw: 0.8% x (3.52/2 - 1) x 30% + 0.1% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.2c

  • Lose by 1 to 21 points: -0.8% x 30% + 0.1% x 0.9 x 65% = -0.2c

  • Otherwise: -0.8% x 30% - 0.1% x 65% = -0.3c

HAWTHORN

  • Lose by less than 43 points: 1.3% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.8c

  • Otherwise: -1.3% x 65% = -0.8c

COLLINGWOOD

  • Win by 35 points or more: 0.1% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.1c

  • Otherwise: -0.1% x 65% = -0.1c

Hawthorn clearly carries the most risk for Investors this weekend, with the difference between best and worst results for them equalling 1.6% of the original Combined Portfolio. The next-most risk is carried by West Coast (1%), then Collingwood (0.2%).

A best-case set of results will see the Combined Portfolio increase by 1.6c, and a worst-case set will see it fall by 1.2c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.