2023 - Team Ratings After Round 14

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There was again quite the shakeup at the top of the Leaderboard for both Systems, but moreso for MoSHBODS, which ended with both Systems agreeing about the order for the six highest-rated teams. That includes Port Adelaide in 1st, Melbourne in 2nd, and Brisbane Lions in 3rd.

After a similar rethinking in relation to the other end of the Leaderboard, the two Systems now also agree about the ordering of the five lowest-ranked teams.

In total, 11 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 13 changed places on MoSHBODS with the lone big mover on MoSSBODS being Richmond, up three spots into 8th. On MoSHBODS, Carlton rose four spots to 9th, and St Kilda fell four spots to 12th. No other teams moved by more than two spots on either System.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9897 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.6 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Power, Lions, and Dees, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Power, Lions, and Cats. On defence MoSSBODS has a Top 3 of Dees, Power, and Pies, while MoSHBODS still has it as Dees, Pies, and Saints.

MoSSBODS now has nine team rated as above average on offence, and MoSHBODS now has 12. MoSSBODS also still has 12 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS now only 10 rated that way.

To put the latest MoSSBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of all teams after Round 14 across V/AFL history.

Port Adelaide and Melbourne remain the only teams with a Combined Rating in the top 50% of teams that eventually went on to make the Grand Final. West Coast remain anchored in very shallow waters.

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current Rating.

On MoSSBODS, 8 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 2), 5 are rated negatively on both (no change), 1 is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 4 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 2).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.74, which is about the same as last week.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked 10 teams again this week, though none from the Bottom 4.

At the top, Collingwood and Port Adelaide both climbed a spot, relegating Geelong into 4th, whilst mid pack there were mostly one- but a single two-spot moves (the latter being Fremantle down two spots into 12th).

There are now only 11 teams rated better-than-average by MARS with the Gold Coast and Fremantle falling below the necessary mark this week.

The Rating gap between first and last still stands at about 86 Rating Points with both the highest- and lowest-rated teams having byes this round. The gap between first and eighth is now just over 21 Rating Points, and that between first and fifth is now just over 7 Rating Points.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder (using Match Ratio to adjust for byes), we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: St Kilda and Essendon

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Geelong and Sydney (and possibly Carlton)

MARS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 13, ahead of MoSSBODS on four and MoSHBODS on just two. MARS is particularly different in terms of its ranking of Carlton and, to a lesser extent, St Kilda and Fremantle..

MoSHBODS and MARS now agree about the ranking of only four teams, MoSSBODS and MARS also about only four teams, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now about 12 teams (which is eight more than last week).

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Carlton (6 spots) still has the widest range of rankings, but that there are now only three other teams where the rankings span a range of more than two spots.

There are now also three teams that the Systems unanimously rank the same way: Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast.