The bookmakers were clearly superior to both MoS twins this season in terms of their ability to forecast Game Totals, so much so that it’s fairly unlikely I’ll be bothering to wager in this market next season unless an off-season re-optimisation of the MoS algorithms suggests that a much stronger result is realistic.
In the meantime, let’s wrap up what the final round left us with.
Read MoreThe Dees’ emphatic win over the Dogs saw them finish the season well-ahead on the two Rating Systems, 5.2 Scoring Shots clear of the Dogs on MoSSBODS, and 14.7 Points clear on MoSHBODS.
That left the two Systems still completely agreeing only about the top seven and the bottom three teams, but differing by no more than a single spot about any of them.
Read MoreAll the Head-to-Head Tipsters were on the Dees in the Grand Final, which means that MoSSBODS_Marg has finished top on 138.5 from 206 (67%), three tips ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 135.5 (66%), and five tips ahead of MoSHPlay_Marg on 133.5 (65%).
Read MoreIt’s the Dees by 9, according to MoSHPlay
This week the MoS forecasters again have lower expectations for scoring than the bookmakers - by about two goals in MoSSBODS’ case.
Read MoreThe Grand Final pits 1st against 5th, the first such pairing this millennium - in fact, the first time that 5th has made the Grand Final at all. Somewhat surprisingly, 1st has a worse than 50:50 record in Grand Finals across this period.
Read MoreThe Dogs remained in 2nd place behind the Dees on both Systems this week, but now trail by only 2.4 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and by 7.1 Points on MoSHBODS.
The only teams moving spots were Port Adelaide, who fell three spots to 6th on both Systems, Brisbane Lions, who climbed two spots into 3rd on both Systems despite not playing, and Sydney, who climbed one spot into 5th on both Systems, also without playing.
That left the two Systems agreeing about the top seven and the bottom three teams.
Read MoreAnother full set of one from twos for all the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week has left MoSSBODS_Marg still three tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 137.5 from 206 (67%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 134.5 (65%) and MoSHPlay_Marg on 132.5 (64%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has the Friday game being decided by less than a goal, but the Saturday game by almost four goals.
This week the MoS forecasters have lower expectations for scoring than the bookmakers in both games, in the Friday game by just over a goal, and in the Saturday game by just under a goal.
Read MoreOnce again, the home teams - one notional, one actual - are favourites this week in the two Preliminary Finals.
Those Finals pit 1st against 3rd, the historical record since 2000 for which is a 4-all draw, and 2nd against 5th where the former holds a 2-0 lead.
Read MoreThe Dogs slipped into 2nd place behind the Dees on both Systems this week, and find themselves trailing by 2.7 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and by 7.9 Points on MoSHBODS.
Geelong rose by a single spot on both Systems into 4th, and the Lions fell by two spots on MoSSBODS, and three spots on MoSHBODS. That means both Systems now agree about the Top 4 teams, and that these are the four teams contesting the Preliminary Finals.
In fact, the two Systems now agree about the top 11, and the bottom three teams..
Read MoreThe one-point Dogs win meant that it was one from two for all the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, which left MoSSBODS_Marg still three tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 136.5 from 204 (67%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 133.5 (65%) and MoSHPlay_Marg on 131.5 (65%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 20 points.
The most minor of changes sees MoSHPlay moving from Geelong by 20.7 to 21.3 point favourites, now with a victory probability of 74%
MoSHPlay is forecasting two fairly comfortable wins for the favourites
This week the MoS forecasters have lower expectations for scoring in the Friday game than the bookmakers, and higher expectations for the Saturday game.
Read MoreBoth home teams are again favourites this week (despite the fact that one of them is playing its home game in a different State), a circumstance that is once more supported by recent history, which reveals that double-chance teams are 34 and 8 in Semi-Finals since 2000.
Read MoreThe Dees extended their lead on both Systems this week, and now find themselves 2.9 Scoring Shots ahead of Port Adelaide on MoSSBODS, and 8.7 Points ahead of Brisbane Lions on MoSHBODS.
There was, however, something of a shake-up behind the Dees, with Port Adelaide rising two spots on MoSSBODS, and Geelong dropping two spots on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS.
The two Systems now agree about the top team, the teams in 4th through 11th, and the bottom three teams.
Read MoreIt was three out of fours all round this week, which left MoSSBODS_Marg three tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 135.5 from 202 (67%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 132.5 from 202 (66%) and MoSHPlay_Marg on 130.5 from 202 (65%).…
Read MoreJust a small adjustment to the final forecast. Dogs by 7 now.
Finals are not usually the time to be tipping upsets, not even for MoSHPlay
This week the MoS forecasters, overall, have similar opinions to the bookmakers’ about likely Total scores, but somewhat different opinions about what individual teams score to reach those Totals.
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