2021 - Post Round 27 : Overs/Unders

The bookmakers were clearly superior to both MoS twins this season in terms of their ability to forecast Game Totals, so much so that it’s fairly unlikely I’ll be bothering to wager in this market next season unless an off-season re-optimisation of the MoS algorithms suggests that a much stronger result is realistic.

In the meantime, let’s wrap up what the final round left us with.

FINAL RESULTS

Round 27 had Sportsbet and the TAB jointly recording the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Home Team Score and Game Total, and MoSSBODS recording the lowest MAE for Game Margin and Away Team Score.

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That left MoSSBODS finishing the season with the lowest MAE on Away Team Scores (beating MoSHBODS by just under 20 points), Sportsbet with the best season-long performances on Game Margins (leading the TAB by 7 points) and Game Totals (leading the TAB by 1 points), and the TAB with the best season-long performance on Home Team Scores (leading Sportsbet by 9.5 points).

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MoSSBODS lost its only unders wager last week, which was with the TAB. That left it with a final 31 and 39 record with the TAB, and a 7 and 8 record with Sportsbet.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS both finished on the wrong side of the Total against Sportsbet and the TAB.

That left MoSSBODS at 104 from 207 (50%) against the TAB, and 102 from 207 (49%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS at 102 from 207 (49%) against the TAB, and 103 from 207 (50%) against Sportsbet.