2021 - Round 26 (Week 3 of the Finals) : One, Two, Three and Five

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Once again, the home teams - one notional, one actual - are favourites this week in the two Preliminary Finals.

Those Finals pit 1st against 3rd, the historical record since 2000 for which is a 4-all draw, and 2nd against 5th where the former holds a 2-0 lead.

It is only the second time in this period that the Preliminary Finals have included the teams from the first three spots on the home-and-away ladder, and the team from 5th.

In both Preliminary Finals, the favourites are about two-goal favourites.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

For the third week in a row there are no contrarian tips amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, so there’ll again be no movement on the Leaderboard, MoSHPlay willing.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, the forecast ranges are quite narrow at just 5 and 9 points, with Bookie_3, RSMP_Simple, and MoSHBODS_Marg combining to define the ends of them.

MoSHBODS_Marg currently trails RSMP_Weighted on the Leaderboard by just over 38 points. Even with best-case outcomes, it will only reduce that gap by 4 points.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the probability estimate ranges are also narrow at just 4% points and 8% points, with Bookie_LPSO anchoring one end of both ranges, assisted by MoSHBODS_Marg in the Dees game, and by RSMP_Simple in the Power game.

The probability estimates of the MoS twins are insufficiently different from the bookmaker-based Predictors to seriously imperil their positions on the Leaderboard.

WAGERS

This week, no wagers, although a Cats bet would have been made had the Head-to-Head Fund been permitted to wager on “away” teams.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

It seems overwhelmingly likely now then that the Combined Portfolio will finish in black ink for the third year in a row, and the fifth time in the last six years.

It will also continue the streak of successive profits by the Line Fund, whose only significant loss came in 2015.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.