2021 - Team Ratings After Round 24
/The Dees extended their lead on both Systems this week, and now find themselves 2.9 Scoring Shots ahead of Port Adelaide on MoSSBODS, and 8.7 Points ahead of Brisbane Lions on MoSHBODS.
There was, however, something of a shake-up behind the Dees, with Port Adelaide rising two spots on MoSSBODS, and Geelong dropping two spots on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS.
The two Systems now agree about the top team, the teams in 4th through 11th, and the bottom three teams.
The correlation between MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9959.
On the Component Ratings, on Offence MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Lions, Dees, and Power, while MoSHBODS still has Lions, Dees, and Dogs. On Defence, their shared Top 3s remain Dees, Cats, and Power.
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.74, which is up a little on last week’s number.
In the animation below, we can see the path that each team has taken to arrive at its current Rating.
To get some historical context for the overall quality of this year’s Finalists, here, firstly is a chart showing the end of Home-and-Away season ratings of all the Finalists since 2000, and where those teams subsequently finished.
As we’ve noted before, none of the teams is particularly outstanding individually in terms of their Combined Rating. That’s also true of them collectively, especially in terms of their offensive abilities.
Lastly, to MARS, where we find that there’s been quite some Ratings compression at the top of the Leaderboard.
Port Adelaide are now in 2nd and trail Brisbane Lions by only 1.6 Rating Points, and Melbourne are in 3rd, after both they and Port Adelaide leap-frogged Geelong, who now sit in 4th.
The only other movement on the Leaderboard was GWS’ moving ahead of Richmond and into 8th spot. They could, conceivably, move above Essendon before the season is out, but anything higher than 7th seems very unlikely.
By way of comparison, at the same point last season, Ratings were as follows:
Geelong 1,031.5
Richmond 1,031.3
Port Adelaide 1,027.3
Brisbane Lions 1,024.6
West Coast 1,017.9
Collingwood 1,011.2
Western Bulldogs 1,010.1
St Kilda 1,007.7
This would suggest that the Top 5 teams, at least, are comparable in ability to last year’s Top 4.
MARS continues to provide the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most extreme ranking for nine teams now. By comparison, MoSSBODS has the outright most extreme ranking for only four teams, and MoSHBODS for only two.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agree about the ranking of 12 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about the ranking of seven teams, and MoSHBODS and MARS about the ranking of eight teams.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that West Coast has the widest range of rankings (four spots), while 16 teams have rankings that differ by no more than two spots, including Adelaide, Essendon, Gold Coast, GWS, North Melbourne, and Sydney, about whom all three Systems agree on a ranking.
