MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 15 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Suns by 14 points.
Here are MoSHPlay’s early thoughts on the remaining games of the round (assuming that the average quality of the final 23s will be the same as the average quality of the currently named squads including the Interchanges but not the Emergencies).
MoSHPlay has ended at Swans by 9 points
In this week’s amuse-bouche round, MoSSBODS is forecasting, on average, slightly higher scores than the bookmakers, while MoSHBODS is forecasting slightly lower scores.
Read MoreWelcome back
The men’s 2024 AFL season starts off weirdly in at least three ways: there are only four games in the opening round, Carlton and Richmond don’t face one another, and the round is numbered 0.
There are, at this stage, four home team favourites, including the Giants over the 2023 Premiers by about half a goal. The strongest of the favourites are the Lions who are currently expected to defeat the Blues by just over 3 goals.
Read MoreThe men’s 2024 version of MoS will be much the same as the men’s 2023 edition, especially on the forecasting front.
You will again see somewhere on the site weekly posts predicitng results for the round ahead, reviewing the results of the round just gone, updating Team Ratings and the Team Dashboard, and projecting the remainder of the home and away season and the Finals using a technique I railed against for many years.
The main changes are decribed in the sections that follow.
Read MoreHonours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were spread amongst MoSSBODS and the two bookmakers this week in the sole game that we had:
Game Margins: TAB and Sportsbet (tied)
Home Team Scores: TAB
Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS
Game Totals: TAB
The season-long round win tallies finish at:
Game Margins: TAB (9.5 incl 5 ties) / MoSSBODS (7) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 5 ties)
Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS (8) / TAB (7.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (7) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie)
Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS (8) / TAB (7.5 incl 1 tie) / Sportsbet (6.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (6)
Game Totals: MoSSBODS (10) / TAB (9.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (2.5 incl 1 tie)
The Giants, as we suspected, have finished the season atop both Systems, though only by 0.4 SS on MoSSBODS. On MoSHBODS, the lead is a litttle larger at 7.6 points per game.
The only moves on the MoSSBODS rankings were Collingwood up 4 places into 4th, Brisbane Lions down 2 places into 6th, and Port Adelaide and Fremantle down 1 spot each into 7th and 8th. On MoSHBODS we had Adelaide up 1 spot into 3rd, Collingwood up 1 into 5th, Sydney down 1 into 6th, and Brisbane Lions down 1 into 4th.
Ten teams finish the season rated above-average on MoSSBODS, with 1st and 10th separated by only 4.7 SS, which equates to about 17 points. Twelve teams are rated above-average on MoSHBODS, with 1st and 10th separated by only just under 20 points.
It’s been, as we thought fairly early on - a very even competition with no stand out teams. By way of comparison, last year Geelong finished rated +12.1 by MoSSBODS and +40.8 by MoSHBODS. On MoSSBODS, there were five more teams rated +3 or better, and on MoSHBODS there were five more teams rated +12 or better.
Read MoreCollingwood clung on to ensure that Minor Premiers now have a better than 50% win rate in Grand Finals since 2000, as shown in the table at right. They still, however, have a nett losing record against teams finishing 2nd in the home-and-away season.
In percentage terms, teams from 7th (1-0; 100%) and from 3rd (7-5; 58%) now have the best records, and teams from 4th, 5th and 6th (all 0-1; 0%) have the worst.
Read MoreMoSHPlay is currently at Pies by a goal
The MoS twins fancy that the Grand Final will be lower scoring than do the bookmakers, and by as much as 2 goals.
Read MoreIt’s 1st v 2nd in the Grand Final, a matchup that has only occurred 7 times since 2000, and that hasn’t been a happy pairing for Minor Premiers who’ve won only 2 of those 7.
But this year is this year and has no obligation to follow trend, and the bookmakers have the Pies as about 5-point favourites.urites.
Read MoreThe Giants, barring a huge Lions win in the Grand Final, will finish the season ranked 1st on both MoS Systems, despite dropping 0.3 SS of Rating on MoSSBODS this week.
The only moves on the rankings were, on MoSSBODS, Adelaide and Brisbane Lions switching 3rd and 4th, and Carlton and Western Bulldogs switching 9th and 10th and, on MoSHBODS, Melbourne and Brisbane Lions switching 2nd and 3rd.
Ten teams are now rated above-average on MoSSBODS, with 1st and 10th separated by only 4.7 SS, which equates to about 17 points. Twelve teams are rated above-average on MoSHBODS, with 1st and 10th separated by only 19.8 points.
It’s been, as we thought fairly early on, a very even competition with no stand out teams.
Read MoreAfter scares of varying magnitudes, both favourites prevailed this week, knocking 5th and 7th out of the competition in Week 3 of the Finals, a fate that teams from 5th have only suffered three times, and teams from 7th only once, in the last 24 seasons, as you can see in the table at right.
Those results cost MoSHPlay_Marg as share of the lead, and allowed MoSHBODS_Marg and RSMP_Simple to take joint leadership on 147 from 215 (68%).
The all-Tipster average for the round was 1.8 from 2, which took the all-season figure to 141 from 215 (66%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has ended at Giants by 4 points
MoSHPlay has joined MoSSBODS in forecasting a Giants win on Friday night.
The MoS twins have quite similar views to the bookmakers’ about the likely Totals in each game, even though they disagree quite significantly about the shares of those Totals that each team will secure.
Read MoreThis round sees 1st play 7th for the first time in Finals history since 2000, and 2nd play 5th for only the fourth time.
At present, the bookmakers have the Pies as about 11-point favourites, and the Lions as about 20-point favourites.
Read MoreThe Giants impressed both MoS Systems enough on Saturday night to have them both install GWS as their top-rated team. MoSSBODS also thought Melbourne did enough to earn 2nd place ahead of the Lions, while MoSHBODS was happy to leave the Lions marginally ahead of the Dees.
Collingwood, despite not playing, rose a spot on both Systems into 8th on MoSSBODS and 6th on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreBoth underdogs won this week, knocking 3rd and 4th out of the competition in straight sets, a fate that teams from these positions have only suffered five times in the last 24 seasons, as you can see in the table at right.
Those results meant that MoSHPlay_Marg’s lone contrarian tip was the only scorer for the round, and allowed it to move into joint 1st with MoSHBODS_Marg on 145 from 213 (68%).
The all-Tipster average for the round was 0.1 from 2, which took the all-season figure to 139.2 from 213 (65%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Giants by a point
MoSHPlay finishes at Dees by 5 points
MoSHPlay is currently opting for an upset in the Power v Giants game
The MoS twins have similar views to the bookmakers’ about the Power v Giants game, but very different views about the Dees v Blues game, which they see as producing only 139 points. That’s about three goals less than the bookmaker view.
Read MoreRecent Finals history shows that home teams in week 1 of the Finals tend to fare well, especially in the Qualifying Finals, and less so in the 1st Elimination Final.
That is largely reflected in the bookmaker prices this week, which see the Pies (and time of wagering) slight favourites, the Blues and Lions as moderate favourites, and the Saints as narrow underdogs.
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