After the Elimination and Qualifying Finals, the MoS twins now agree that Brisbane Lions should be ranked 1st, and GWS 2nd. Thereafter, MoSSBODS has it as Adelaide, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and Sydney, while MoSHBODS has it as Melbourne, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, and Sydney.
Both of them remain resolutely unimpressed with Collingwood, who MoSSBODS ranks 9th and MoSHBODS 7th.
Read MoreAs is often the case, favouritism weighs heavily in Finals, and so it was that Bookie Knows Best snared 4 from 4 this week, a feat matched only by RSMP twins. That allowed RSMP_Simple to join MoSHBODS_Marg at the top of the Leaderboard on 145 from 211 (69%). MoSHPlay_Marg now sits in 3rd place, one tip behind.
Those results left the minor premiers with the best week 1 record of 75%, just ahead of 2nd place’s 71% record. Teams from 5th position still have the worst record, although that is now nearing 60%.
Overall the teams finishing higher on the ladder than their opponents now have a 64 and 32 or 2-in-3 winning record.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 3 from 4, which took the all-season figure to 139.1 from 211 (66%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay ends at Giants by 5 points.
MoSHPlay ends at Blues by 13 points.
MoSHPlay ends at Dees by 6 points.
MoSHPlay is sticking with the family and going Dees by 9 points
The MoS twins are forecasting generally similar totals to the bookmakers this week, with the exception of the Saints v Giants game where they are over a goal lower.
Read MoreWe finish the home-and-away season with MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agreeing on the Top 6 teams, but with the Top 4 in very different orders.
Adelaide, with only a relatively modest +1 Scoring Shot increase in its Combined Rating, moved back into top spot on MoSSBODS. They also moved up on MoSHBODS, but only into 4th.
Brisbane Lions gained Rating on both Systems to finish in 2nd on MoSSBODS and 3rd on MoSHBODS
Melbourne also gained Rating on both Systems to finish in 3rd on MoSSBODS and 2nd on MoSHBODS
GWS also gained Rating on both Systems, but in particular on MoSHBODS, to finish in 4th on MoSSBODS and 1st on MoSHBODS
Port Adelaide lost Rating on both Systems to finish in 5th on both Systems
Carlton lost Rating on both Systems to finish in 6th on both Systems
Both of those 1st place rankings seem a little curious, but the underlying story is, I think, that there are no standout teams this season, so a week or two of unexpectedly strong performances can catapult a team well up the rankings. To illustrate that point, note that the gap between Adelaide and Carlton on MoSSBODS is only 1.7 Scoring Shots (or about 6 points at average conversion rates), and between Adelaide and Carlton on MoSHBODS is only 5.1 points.
By way of comparison, the gaps between 1st and 6th at the end of the 2022 home and away season were 6.4 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and 25.1 points on MoSHBODS, which are about 4 to 5 times the size.
Read MoreRecent Finals history shows that home teams in week 1 of the Finals tend to fare well, especially in the Qualifying Finals, and less so in the 1st Elimination Final.
That is largely reflected in the bookmaker prices this week, which see the Pies (and time of wagering) slight favourites, the Blues and Lions as moderate favourites, and the Saints as narrow underdogs.
Read MoreIf ever there was a week to take notice of each team’s ladder position, this was it, as just 4 of the 9 early-week favourites were successful, but 7 of the 9 teams higher on the competition ladder took the four points.
At the top of the Leaderboard, however, MoSHBODS_Marg managed 4 from 9 to now lead MoSHPlay_Marg, MoSSBODS_Marg and RSMP_Simple by two tips.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 4.6 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 136.1 from 207 (66%).
Read MoreBlues by 1 point, according to MoSHPlay
Swans by 4 points, according to MoSHPlay
Power by 26 points, according to MoSHPlay
It’s the Dogs by 7 points, according to MoSHPlay
MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 24 points
MoSHPlay finishes at Hawks by 11 and Gold Coast by 29 for the Super Saturday fixtures
MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 27 points
Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts about the final home and away round
The MoS twins are once again forecasting generally lower scoring than are the bookmakers this week, by just over a goal a game in the case of MoSSBODS, and just over half-a-goal a game in the case of MoSHBODS.
Read MoreSeven Round 24 contests involve teams that are separated by no more than 4 spots on the competion ladder and the other two contests involve teams that are separated by nine spots on the competition ladder. We have:
Two games where the teams are separated by two ladder positions and where the lines are 12.5 and 13.5 points
Three games where the teams are separated by three ladder positions and where the lines range between 1.5 and 15.5 points
Two games where the teams are separated by four ladder positions and where the lines are 30.5 and 34.5 points
Two games where the teams are separated by nine ladder positions and where the lines are 31.5 and 40.5 points
On average, the opposing teams are separated by 4.3 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.9.
The relatively small average ladder gap between teams has not translated into generally lower handicaps this week, the overall average coming in at 21.5 points per game, which is up by about 2 points on the Round 23 average. It leaves the all-Season average at its final value of 18.4 points per game, which is the highest average since 2018.
Read MoreAdelaide’s triumph was relatively short lived on both Systems, and they were amongst some big movers this week, once again highlighting the close nature of this year’s competition, and the lack of any real standout teams.
On MoSSBODS
Geelong (down 5 to 13th)
Western Bulldogs (down 4 to 10th)
Adelaide (down 3 to 5th)
Gold Coast (down 2 to 12th)
GWS (up 6 to 6th)
St Kilda (up 5 to 9th)
On MoSHBODS
Adelaide (down 4 to 5th)
Western Bulldogs (down 4 to 11th)
Geelong (down 4 to 10th)
Gold Coast (down 3 to 13th)
GWS (up 5 to 6th)
St Kilda (up 4 to 9th)
Brisbane Lions (up 3 to 2nd)
Sydney (up 2 to 7th)
That’s left us with a Top 3 on MoSSBODS of Port Adelaide, Melbourne, and Carlton, and a Top 3 on MoSHBODS of Carlton, Brisbane Lions, and Port Adelaide.
In total, 11 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 9 teams changed places on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreOnly five early week favourites won this week, which meant that MoSHPlay_Marg’s and Consult The Ladder’s 6 from 9 was high score for the round, and Home Sweet Home’s 4 from 9 was low score.
MoSHBODS_Marg managed 5 from 9 and still retains a two tip lead over MoSSBODS_Marg and a three tip lead over ENS_Linear, RSMP_Simple and now MoSHPlay_Marg.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 5.1 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 131.6 from 198 (66%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay ends at Melbourne by 22 points
MoSHPlay ends at Geelong by 4 points and Adelaide by 20 points
MoSHPlay ends at Giants by 28 points
MoSHPlay ends at Blues by less than a point
MoSHPlay ends at Tigers by 40 points
Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts about Round 23
The MoS twins are once again forecasting generally lower scoring than are the bookmakers this week, by about as much as a goal a game in the case of MoSSBODS.
Read MoreFive Round 23 contests involve teams that are separated by no more than 5 spots on the competion ladder and the other four contests involve teams that are separated by at least 10 spots on the competition ladder. We have:
Two games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are 6.5 and 18.5 points
Three games where the teams are separated by four or five ladder positions and where the lines range between 8.5 to 24.5 points
Two games where the teams are separated by 10 ladder positions and where the lines are 8.5 and 62.5 points
Two games where the teams are separated by 11 or 12 ladder positions and where the lines are 9.5 and 26.5 points
On average, the opposing teams are separated by 6.6 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.7.
The relatively large average ladder gap between teams has translated into generally higher handicaps this week, the overall average coming in at 19.4 points per game, which is up by about 4-and-a-half points on the Round 22 average, but down by almost seven points on the all-time average for Round 23s. It leaves the all-Season average at 18.2 points per game.
Read MoreSuch is the ridiculously close nature of MoS Team Ratings at this stage of the season that we see multiple teams moving by three or more spots on both Systems.
On MoSSBODS, only the bottom 3 teams were unmoved, while on MoSHBODS only 2nd and the bottom 3 teams were unmoved.
The big movers were:
On MoSSBODS
Port Adelaide (up 3 to 1st)
Adelaide (up 5 to 2nd)
Melbourne (up 2 to 3rd)
Collingwood (up 2 to 7th)
Fremantle (up 2 to 11th)
Brisbane Lions (down 4 to 5th)
Western Bulldogs (down 3 to 6th)
Richmond (down 3 to 15th)
Carlton (down 2 to 4th)
Geelong (down 2 to 8th)
GWS (down 2 to 12th)
On MoSHBODS
Adelaide (up 5 to 1st)
Port Adelaide (up 4 to 2nd)
Fremantle (up 3 to 12th)
Brisbane Lions (down 4 to 5th)
Western Bulldogs (down 4 to 7th)
Richmond (down 3 to 15th)
Geelong (down 2 to 6th)
That’s left us with a Top 3 on MoSSBODS of Port Adelaide, Adelaide, and Melbourne, and a Top 3 on MoSHBODS of Adelaide, Carlton, and Port Adelaide.
Whilst I can make cases for Carlton and Port Adelaide, seeing Adelaide in 2nd on MoSSBODS and 1st on MoSHBODS after a loss (albeit a much smaller than expected one and after registering more scoring shots) did have me checking my inputs.
The larger point, however, is that only 2.3 Scoring Shots separate 1st from 8th on MoSSBODS, and just 4.2 Points separate 1st from 8th on MoSHBODS. That is truly extraordinary.
Read MoreEarly-week favourites fared fairly well this week, which helped the Head-to-Head Tipsters record a 6.7 from 9 aggregate performance. Best was Consult The Ladders’ 8 from 9, and worst the 6 from 9 scores of the MoS trio and ENS_Linear.
MoSHBODS_Marg still retains a two tip lead over MoSSBODS_Marg , however, and a three tip lead over ENS_Linear and, now, RSMP_Simple.
The all-Tipster all-season figure is now 126.4 from 189 (67%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 5 points
MoSHPlay finishes at Fremantle by 42 points
MoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 8 points
MoSHPlay finishes at Brisbane Lions by 14 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Essendon by 19 points and Sydney by 23 points.
Here are MoSHPlay’s thoughts on the Round 22 games
The MoS twins are, yet again, forecasting generally lower scoring than are the bookmakers this week, but only by about half a goal a game.
Read MoreTwo-thirds of Round 22 contests involve teams that are separated by no more than 6 spots on the competion ladder. We have:
Two games where the teams are separated by three ladder positions and where the lines are 8.5 and 23.5 points
Two games where the teams are separated by four ladder positions and where the lines are 15.5 to 19.5 points
Two games where the teams are separated by five or six ladder positions and where the lines are 2.5 and 23.5 points
Three games where the teams are separated by eight or 10 ladder positions and where the lines range from 5.5 to 22.5 points
On average, the opposing teams are separated by 5.7 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.79.
The large number of games pitting teams relatively close on the ladder has translated into generally low handicaps, the overall average coming in at 14.8 points per game, which is down by about 8 points on the Round 21 average, and down by about eight-and-a-half points on the all-time average for Round 22s. It drops the all-Season average to 18.2 points per game.
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