2023 - Round 23 : Penultimate

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Five Round 23 contests involve teams that are separated by no more than 5 spots on the competion ladder and the other four contests involve teams that are separated by at least 10 spots on the competition ladder. We have:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are 6.5 and 18.5 points

  • Three games where the teams are separated by four or five ladder positions and where the lines range between 8.5 to 24.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by 10 ladder positions and where the lines are 8.5 and 62.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by 11 or 12 ladder positions and where the lines are 9.5 and 26.5 points

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 6.6 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.7.

The relatively large average ladder gap between teams has translated into generally higher handicaps this week, the overall average coming in at 19.4 points per game, which is up by about 4-and-a-half points on the Round 22 average, but down by almost seven points on the all-time average for Round 23s. It leaves the all-Season average at 18.2 points per game.

Next, the tips.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

This week’s underdog support comes solely from Home Sweet Home in three games, and Consult The Ladder in three more. As such, there’ll be limited movement on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard (although MoSHPlay_Marg has yet to show its hand).

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in six games, including 25 points in the Dees v Hawks game, 24 points in the Dogs v Eagles game, 16 points in the Crows v Swans game, 12 points in the Tigers v Roos game, and 11 points in the Suns v Blues, and Giants v Dons games.

MoSHBODS_Marg and Bookie_9 have Extreme Predictor status in four games this week, and the RSMP twins in three games each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are four games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Dees v Hawks (15% points), Suns v Blues (12% points), Crows v Swans (11% points), and Giants v Dons (10% points).

MoSHBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in five games, and Bookie_OE and Bookie_LPSO in four games each.

WAGERS

Investors will have four head-to-head and three line wagers in Round 22, the former representing a honking 12% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the latter just over 4% of the original Line Fund..

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The round’s Ready Reckoner reveals that the team carrying the largest risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) is Hawthorn at 3.4c, ahead of Adelaide at 3.2c, GWS at 2.7c, and then Gold Coast and Fremantle both at 1c.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by almost 5c, while a worst case set would snip almost 6.5c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.