2023 - Team Ratings After Round 22

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Such is the ridiculously close nature of MoS Team Ratings at this stage of the season that we see multiple teams moving by three or more spots on both Systems.

On MoSSBODS, only the bottom 3 teams were unmoved, while on MoSHBODS only 2nd and the bottom 3 teams were unmoved.

The big movers were:

On MoSSBODS

  • Port Adelaide (up 3 to 1st)

  • Adelaide (up 5 to 2nd)

  • Melbourne (up 2 to 3rd)

  • Collingwood (up 2 to 7th)

  • Fremantle (up 2 to 11th)

  • Brisbane Lions (down 4 to 5th)

  • Western Bulldogs (down 3 to 6th)

  • Richmond (down 3 to 15th)

  • Carlton (down 2 to 4th)

  • Geelong (down 2 to 8th)

  • GWS (down 2 to 12th)

On MoSHBODS

  • Adelaide (up 5 to 1st)

  • Port Adelaide (up 4 to 2nd)

  • Fremantle (up 3 to 12th)

  • Brisbane Lions (down 4 to 5th)

  • Western Bulldogs (down 4 to 7th)

  • Richmond (down 3 to 15th)

  • Geelong (down 2 to 6th)

That’s left us with a Top 3 on MoSSBODS of Port Adelaide, Adelaide, and Melbourne, and a Top 3 on MoSHBODS of Adelaide, Carlton, and Port Adelaide.

Whilst I can make cases for Carlton and Port Adelaide, seeing Adelaide in 2nd on MoSSBODS and 1st on MoSHBODS after a loss (albeit a much smaller than expected one and after registering more scoring shots) did have me checking my inputs.

The larger point, however, is that only 2.3 Scoring Shots separate 1st from 8th on MoSSBODS, and just 4.2 Points separate 1st from 8th on MoSHBODS. That is truly extraordinary.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9958 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.64 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Power, Crows, and Lions and MoSHBODS with Power, Crows, and Swans, while on defence MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Dees, Blues, and Saints, while MoSHBODS now has it as Blues, Dees, and Saints.

MoSSBODS now has nine teams rated as above average on offence, while MoSHBODS has 10 teams so rated. As well, MoSSBODS still has 14 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS still has 12.

To put the latest MoSSBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of all teams after Round 22 of their respective home-and-away seasons across V/AFL history (noting that, in some seasons, there would not have been 22 home-and-away rounds)

It remains true that no team currently has a Combined Rating in the top 50% of teams that eventually went on to make the Grand Final, and now only six teams are Rated outside the bottom decile for teams that eventually made the Grand Final.

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current Rating.

On MoSSBODS, 9 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 4 are rated negatively on both (up 1), none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (down 1), and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.65, which is down again this week.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked a far more pedestrian seven teams this week, but only the Saints and the Dockers (up 2), and the Tigers (down 2) by more than a single spot.

It left the Top 5 and Bottom 4 teams unchanged and still has the Cats in 1st, Dees in 2nd, and Lions in 3rd. It also still has Adelaide in 9th, albeit only 16 Ratings Points behind the leader.

Geelong’s lead over the Dees remains at just 0.7 Rating Points, and the Dees’ over the Lions at just 1.8 Rating Points.

There are now only nine teams rated better-than-average by MARS. with St Kilda now on 999.5 and GWS on 997.2.

The Rating gap between first and last now stands at about 93.5 Rating Points, which is up by about 1.5 Points on last week, while that between first and eighth now stands at only just over 14 Rating Points. The gap between first and fourth is only just over 2 Rating Points.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Collingwood, St Kilda, and Essendon

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Geelong, Adelaide, and Gold Coast

MARS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 13, ahead of MoSSBODS on seven, and MoSHBODS on four.

MARS’ rankings are particularly different for Collingwood, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Geelong, Adelaide, and Gold Coast.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of five teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about only two, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about seven teams.

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Adelaide (8 spots) now has the widest range of rankings, and that there are still nine teams for whom the rankings span a range of more than two spots.

There are also just two teams that the Systems unanimously rank the same way: North Melbourne, and West Coast.