2023 - Round 24 : Final Before Finals

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Seven Round 24 contests involve teams that are separated by no more than 4 spots on the competion ladder and the other two contests involve teams that are separated by nine spots on the competition ladder. We have:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by two ladder positions and where the lines are 12.5 and 13.5 points

  • Three games where the teams are separated by three ladder positions and where the lines range between 1.5 and 15.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by four ladder positions and where the lines are 30.5 and 34.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by nine ladder positions and where the lines are 31.5 and 40.5 points

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 4.3 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.9.

The relatively small average ladder gap between teams has not translated into generally lower handicaps this week, the overall average coming in at 21.5 points per game, which is up by about 2 points on the Round 23 average. It leaves the all-Season average at its final value of 18.4 points per game, which is the highest average since 2018.

Next, the tips.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

This week’s underdog support comes solely from Home Sweet Home in three games, Consult The Ladder in three more, and the RSMP twins in just one game.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in eight of the nine games, including 21 points in the Eagles v Crows game, 19 points in the Roos v Suns game, 18 points in the Power v Tigers game, and 14 points in the Dons v Pies game, and Lions v Saints games.

MoSSBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in five games this week, and Bookie_3 in four games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are four games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Cats v Dogs (13% points), Roos v Suns (11% points), Power v Tigers (11% points), and Swans v Dees (10% points).

Bookie_LPSO has Extreme Predictor status in seven games, MoSSBODS_Prob in six games, and MoSHBODS_Prob in five games.

WAGERS

Investors will have one head-to-head and four line wagers in Round 24, the former representing 2.4% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the latter, in aggregate, 3.5% of the original Line Fund..

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The round’s Ready Reckoner reveals that four teams are carrying the largest risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) this week - Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Richmond, and Sydney - all at 1.3% of the original Combined Portfolio. Other than that, Gold Coast carry about half that much risk.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 3c, while a worst case set would snip just over 3c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.