2023 - Round 24 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins are once again forecasting generally lower scoring than are the bookmakers this week, by just over a goal a game in the case of MoSSBODS, and just over half-a-goal a game in the case of MoSHBODS.

As highests and lowests, we have:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Port Adelaide v Richmond

  • Bookmakers: West Coast v Adelaide

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Hawthorn v Fremantle

  • Bookmakers: Sydney v Melbourne

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: Adelaide

  • Bookmakers: Port Adelaide

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: St Kilda

  • Bookmakers: Richmond

WAGERS

Investors have six wagers this week, five unders and one overs.

The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers are between about 7 and 26 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were shared around this week, although the TAB took the largest slice:

  • Game Margins: TAB ans Sportsbet tied

  • Home Team Scores: TAB

  • Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS

  • Game Totals: TAB

The season-long round win tallies are now

  • Game Margins: TAB (7 incl 4 ties) / MoSSBODS (6) / MoSHBODS (5) / Sportsbet (5 incl 4 ties)

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS (7) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie) / TAB (5.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (5)

  • Away Team Scores: TAB (6.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (5)

  • Game Totals: TAB (7.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (7) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (2.5 incl 1 tie)

The round results left all four titles in the same hands as last week. The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 69 points ahead of Sportsbet and 78 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: TAB 13 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 33 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 19 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 28 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 16 points ahead of the TAB and 30 points ahead of Sportsbet

MoSSBODS had fivewagers last week, all unders, with one collect from two against Sportsbet, and one collect from three against the TAB.

It ended then at 17 and 16 with the TAB, and at 21 and 12 with Sportsbet, for an overall 38 and 28 record, comprising a 54% win rate on overs and a 58% win rate on unders.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 5 from 9 against both bookmakers and MoSHBODS landed 4 from 9 against both bookmakers.

That moved MoSSBODS to a 103 from 198 (52%) record against the TAB, and a 101 from 198 (51% ) record against Sportsbet, and moved MoSHBODS to a 103 from 198 (52%) record against the TAB, and a 102 from 198 (52%) record against Sportsbet.

ACCURACY by estimated overlay

Here’s an update on the relationship between estimated overlays and outcomes.

For background and information about how to read this chart, see this blog.