2023 - Team Ratings After Round 23

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Adelaide’s triumph was relatively short lived on both Systems, and they were amongst some big movers this week, once again highlighting the close nature of this year’s competition, and the lack of any real standout teams.

On MoSSBODS

  • Geelong (down 5 to 13th)

  • Western Bulldogs (down 4 to 10th)

  • Adelaide (down 3 to 5th)

  • Gold Coast (down 2 to 12th)

  • GWS (up 6 to 6th)

  • St Kilda (up 5 to 9th)

On MoSHBODS

  • Adelaide (down 4 to 5th)

  • Western Bulldogs (down 4 to 11th)

  • Geelong (down 4 to 10th)

  • Gold Coast (down 3 to 13th)

  • GWS (up 5 to 6th)

  • St Kilda (up 4 to 9th)

  • Brisbane Lions (up 3 to 2nd)

  • Sydney (up 2 to 7th)

That’s left us with a Top 3 on MoSSBODS of Port Adelaide, Melbourne, and Carlton, and a Top 3 on MoSHBODS of Carlton, Brisbane Lions, and Port Adelaide.

In total, 11 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 9 teams changed places on MoSHBODS.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9952 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.62 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find both Systems now with a Top 3 of Power, Lions, and Crows, while on defence MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Dees, Saints, and Blues, while MoSHBODS now has it as Saints, Dees, and Blues.

MoSSBODS now has 10 teams rated as above average on offence, while MoSHBODS has 11 teams so rated. As well, MoSSBODS has 13 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS now also has 13.

To put the latest MoSSBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of all teams after Round 23 of their respective home-and-away seasons across V/AFL history (noting that, in some seasons, there would not have been 23 home-and-away rounds)

It remains true that no team currently has a Combined Rating in the top 50% of teams that eventually went on to make the Grand Final, and still only six teams are Rated outside the bottom decile for teams that eventually made the Grand Final. I think it’s fair to say that this year’s winner, while worthy, won’t be one of the teams revered in years to come.

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current Rating.

On MoSSBODS, 8 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 3 are rated negatively on both (down 1), two are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (up 2), and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.61, which is down again this week.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked nine teams this week, but only the Lions (up 2), and the Cats and Dogs (down 2) by more than a single spot.

That left the Top 3 as Lions, Dees, and Cats (and left the bottom 5 unchanged).

The Lions’ lead over the Dees is just 0.6 Rating Points, and the Dees’ over the Cats is just 3.7 Rating Points.

There are now 11 teams rated better-than-average by MARS.

The Rating gap between first and last now stands at about 93 Rating Points, which is down by less than 1 Point on last week, while that between first and eighth now stands at just under 17 Rating Points. The gap between first and fourth is only just over 5 Rating Points.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Collingwood and Essendon

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Adelaide

MARS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 14, ahead of MoSSBODS on six, and MoSHBODS on four.

MARS’ rankings are particularly different for GWS and Geelong.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of only three teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about only three as well, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about eight teams.

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Geelong (10 spots) now has the widest range of rankings, and that there are eight teams for whom the rankings span a range of more than two spots.

There are also just two teams that the Systems unanimously rank the same way: North Melbourne, and West Coast.