2023 - Round 25 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins are forecasting generally similar totals to the bookmakers this week, with the exception of the Saints v Giants game where they are over a goal lower.

As highests and lowests, we have:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: St Kilda v GWS

  • TAB: Collingwood v Melbourne

  • Sportsbet: St Kilda v GWS and Collingwood v Melbourne

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Brisbane Lions

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS: Collingwood

  • MoSHBODS and Bookmakers: Sydney

WAGERS

Investors have just one unders wager this week.

The estimated overlays for that game is just under 9 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were shared around this week, although MoSSBODS took the largest slice:

  • Game Margins: MoSSBODS

  • Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS

  • Away Team Scores: TAB

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS

The season-long round win tallies are now

  • Game Margins: TAB (7 incl 4 ties) / MoSSBODS (7) / MoSHBODS (5) / Sportsbet (5 incl 4 ties)

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS (7) / MoSSBODS (6) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie) / TAB (5.5 incl 1 tie)

  • Away Team Scores: TAB (7.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (5)

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS (8) / TAB (7.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (2.5 incl 1 tie)

The round results left all four titles in the same hands as last week. The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 73 points ahead of Sportsbet and MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: TAB 14 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 24 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 16 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 19 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 41 points ahead of the TAB and 48 points ahead of MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS had six wagers last week, winning 3 from 5 against the TAB, and 1 from 1 against Sportsbet.

It ended at 20 and 18 with the TAB, and at 22 and 12 with Sportsbet, for an overall 42 and 30 record, comprising a 50% win rate on overs and a 60% win rate on unders.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 5 from 9 against both bookmakers and MoSHBODS landed 5 from 9 against the TAB and 6 from 9 against Sportsbet.

That moved MoSSBODS to a 108 from 207 (52%) record against the TAB, and a 106 from 207 (51% ) record against Sportsbet, and moved MoSHBODS to a 108 from 207 (52%) record against the TAB, and a 108 from 207 (52%) record against Sportsbet.

ACCURACY by estimated overlay

Here’s an update on the relationship between estimated overlays and outcomes.

For background and information about how to read this chart, see this blog.

The difference between Large and Small unders is stark at about a 60% win rate fror the former, and a 35 to 45% win rate for the latter.