2023 - Round 22 : Who'd Be A Tipster?

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Two-thirds of Round 22 contests involve teams that are separated by no more than 6 spots on the competion ladder. We have:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by three ladder positions and where the lines are 8.5 and 23.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by four ladder positions and where the lines are 15.5 to 19.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by five or six ladder positions and where the lines are 2.5 and 23.5 points

  • Three games where the teams are separated by eight or 10 ladder positions and where the lines range from 5.5 to 22.5 points

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 5.7 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.79.

The large number of games pitting teams relatively close on the ladder has translated into generally low handicaps, the overall average coming in at 14.8 points per game, which is down by about 8 points on the Round 21 average, and down by about eight-and-a-half points on the all-time average for Round 22s. It drops the all-Season average to 18.2 points per game.

Next, the tips.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

This week’s underdog support comes from Home Sweet Home in four games, Consult The Ladder and ENS_Linear in one game, and the MoS twins in three games. Carlton and Richmond enjoy most underdog support.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in five games, including 23 points in the Eagles v Dockers game, 14 points in the Blues v Dees game, 13 points in the Pies v Cats game, 12 points in the Roos v Dons game, and 11 points in the Hawks v Dogs game.

Bookie_9 has Extreme Predictor status in five games this week, and MoSSBODS_Marg in four.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only three games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Blues v Dees (15% points), Pies v Cats (14% points), and Eagles v Dockers (13% points).

Bookie_LPSO has Extreme Predictor status in six games, as do the MoS twins in five games each.

WAGERS

Investors will have just one head-to-head wager in Round 21 representing 1.5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and two line wagers representing just over 4% of the original Line Fund..

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The possible results are:

CARLTON

  • Wins: 1.5% x 1.3 x 30% + 1.8% x 0.9 x 65% = +1.6c

  • Draws: 1.5% x (2.3/2 - 1) x 30% + 1.8% x 0.9 x 65% = +1.1c

  • Loses by 8 points or less: -1.5% x 30% + 1.8% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.6c

  • Otherwise: -1.5% x 30% - 1.8% x 65% = -1.2c

FREMANTLE

  • Wins by 24 points or more: 2.5% x 0.9 x 65% = +1.5c

  • Otherwise: -2.5% x 65% = -1.6c

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by 3.1c, while a worst case set would snip 2.8c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.