2023 - Round 25 : Eight Teams, Nine Games
/Recent Finals history shows that home teams in week 1 of the Finals tend to fare well, especially in the Qualifying Finals, and less so in the 1st Elimination Final.
That is largely reflected in the bookmaker prices this week, which see the Pies (and time of wagering) slight favourites, the Blues and Lions as moderate favourites, and the Saints as narrow underdogs.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Perhaps one of the most difficult modelling challenges is how to handle venue advantages and disadvantages, if there are any, in the Finals series because the sample size is much smaller than that available for home and away games. The MoS twins handle it by assigning Venue Perfomance Value multipliers, one for Elimination, Qualifying, Semi, and Preliminary Finals played between teams from the same State, another for these same Finals played between teams in only one team’s home State, one for Grand Finals played between teams from the same State, and one more for Grand Finals played between teams in only one team’s home State.
This week, that sees MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS apply a zero net VPV to the same State clash between Collingwood and Melbourne. It also sees MoSSBODS multiplying the net VPVs by 1.5 for all other Finals, and MoSHBODS multiplying them by two.
Those choices mean that they have the Blues and Lions as bigger favourites than do the bookmakers, and have the Pies and Saints as favourites, too.
Their underdog support in those two games is joined by ENS_Linear in both cases, and Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder in the Saints v Giants game.
Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in the Pies v Dees and in the Lions v Power games.
MoSHBODS_Marg and RSMP_Weighted have Extreme Predictor status in three games this week.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are double-digit percentage point forecast ranges in three games, including a sizeable 17% point difference in the Pies v Dees game.
MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in three games, and Bookie_OE in two.
WAGERS
It’s always hard to know when to jump into the Finals Week 1 markets now there’s a week off, but this year I’ve opted to go fairly early and take my chances on the very early prices.
That decision has meant Investors will face three head-to-head wagers this week totalling over 10% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, as well as a single line bet of just over 2% of the original Line Fund.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
From what I can glean from the TAB and Sportsbet websites, Finals bets are settled at the end of regulation time, so draws are possible. As such for these bets we have:
MELBOURNE: Win, Draw, or Lose by 1 or 2 points +1.3c / Otherwise -1.4c
CARLTON: Win +0.6c / Draw -0.3c / Lose -1.2c
St KILDA: Win +0.6c / Draw 0c / Lose -0.6c
CARLTON: Win +0.6c / Draw -0.3c / Lose -1.3c
Melbourne, therefore, carrys the largest risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) this week.
A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just over 3c, while a worst case set would snip just about 4.5c off the price.
To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
