2023 - Team Ratings After Round 28
/The Giants, as we suspected, have finished the season atop both Systems, though only by 0.4 SS on MoSSBODS. On MoSHBODS, the lead is a litttle larger at 7.6 points per game.
The only moves on the MoSSBODS rankings were Collingwood up 4 places into 4th, Brisbane Lions down 2 places into 6th, and Port Adelaide and Fremantle down 1 spot each into 7th and 8th. On MoSHBODS we had Adelaide up 1 spot into 3rd, Collingwood up 1 into 5th, Sydney down 1 into 6th, and Brisbane Lions down 1 into 4th.
Ten teams finish the season rated above-average on MoSSBODS, with 1st and 10th separated by only 4.7 SS, which equates to about 17 points. Twelve teams are rated above-average on MoSHBODS, with 1st and 10th separated by only just under 20 points.
It’s been, as we thought fairly early on - a very even competition with no stand out teams. By way of comparison, last year Geelong finished rated +12.1 by MoSSBODS and +40.8 by MoSHBODS. On MoSSBODS, there were five more teams rated +3 or better, and on MoSHBODS there were five more teams rated +12 or better.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.992 (+0.991 at the end of 2022) and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.62 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS finishing with a Top 3 of Crows, Giants, and Power, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Giants, Crows, and Lions. On defence MoSSBODS finishes with a Top 3 of Dees, Dockers, and Pies, while MoSHBODS now has it as Dees, Giants, and Dockers.
MoSSBODS now has 9 teams rated as above average on offence, and MoSHBODS has 10 teams. As well, MoSSBODS still has 12 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS still has 10.
On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 1), 4 are rated negatively on both (no change), two are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 1).
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.56, which is the same as last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which left the team rankings unchanged this week, meaning that the final Top 3 are Lions, Dees, and Pies.
Brisbane’s final Rating of 1,031.1 is 21 Rating Points lower than Geelong’s after the 2022 Grand Final, and just slightly above Melbourne’s 2022 finish of 1,030.7.
Collingwood, at 1,026.6 is roughly equal to last year’s losing Grand Finalists, Sydney, who ended 2022 rated 1,025.7.
The MARS Rating Gap between 1st and 10th this year is just over 20 Rating Points. In 2022, that gap was just under 50 points (and 28 points between 2nd and 10th).
The ends with 11 teams rated better-than-average by MARS. There were only 10 such teams at the end of 2022 (and hence the start of 2023).
This year’s lowest rated team is West Coast at 933.4, which is only slightly worse than North Melbourne’s 2022 finish of 935.6.
Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that GWS and Geelong (7 spots) have the widest range of rankings, and that there are six more teams for whom the rankings span a range of more than two spots.
There are also five teams that the Systems unanimously rank the same way: Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast.
MARS has the most extreme rankings for 13 teams, MoSSBODS for four, and MoSHBODS for only one.
MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of five teams, MoSSBODS and MARS also about five, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now about the ranking of 13 teams.
