2023 - Final Overs/Unders Results

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RESULTS for the grand final

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were spread amongst MoSSBODS and the two bookmakers this week in the sole game that we had:

  • Game Margins: TAB and Sportsbet (tied)

  • Home Team Scores: TAB

  • Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS

  • Game Totals: TAB

The season-long round win tallies finish at:

  • Game Margins: TAB (9.5 incl 5 ties) / MoSSBODS (7) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 5 ties)

  • Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS (8) / TAB (7.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (7) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie)

  • Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS (8) / TAB (7.5 incl 1 tie) / Sportsbet (6.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (6)

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS (10) / TAB (9.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (2.5 incl 1 tie)

Across the entire season, then, home team margins were about 1.5 to 3 points higher than our forecasters expected. That was the result of home team scores being about 0.2 to 1.3 points higher than forecast, and away team scores 0.9 to 2 points lower than expected.

Game Totals were, on average 0.4 points higher per game than MoSSBODS forecast and between 0.7 and 1.1 points per game lower than MoSHBODS and the two bookmakers forecast.

Overall, those are very acceptable mean errors (especially, in the case of the MoS twins, when you appreciate that they have no weather input).

The round results left all four titles in the same hands as last weekend the final leads across all four metrics as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 72 points ahead of Sportsbet, 73 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 113 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Home Team Scores: TAB 17 points ahead of Sportsbet, 29 points ahead of MoSSBODS, and 30 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 16 points ahead of MoSHBODS, 26 points ahead of the TAB, and 73 points ahead of Sportsbet

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 36 points ahead of the TAB, 51 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 54 points ahead of Sportsbet

MoSSBODS had one wagers last week, a losing under bet with the TAB, and so finished at 21 and 19 with them and 22 and 13 with Sportsbet, for an overall 43 and 32 record, comprising a 50% win rate on overs and a 59% win rate on unders.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS both landed 0 from 1 against both bookmakers.

That moved MoSSBODS to a 113 from 216 (52%) record against the TAB, and a 111 from 216 (51% ) record against Sportsbet, and moved MoSHBODS to a 112 from 216 (52%) record against the TAB, and a 113 from 216 (52%) record against Sportsbet.

None of those percentages is statistically different from chance.

ACCURACY by estimated overlay

Here’s the final relationship between estimated overlays and outcomes.

For background and information about how to read this chart, see this blog.

It’s very clear, then, that the MoS twins excelled this year when their forecast totals were more than 4.5 points under the Total being offered by the bookmakers. Selecting the more favourable total (and assuming a $1.88 price), wagering only on “large unders” so defined would have produced about a 13% ROI. Hindsight’s a fine thing …