2023 - Team Ratings After Round 27
/The Giants, barring a huge Lions win in the Grand Final, will finish the season ranked 1st on both MoS Systems, despite dropping 0.3 SS of Rating on MoSSBODS this week.
The only moves on the rankings were, on MoSSBODS, Adelaide and Brisbane Lions switching 3rd and 4th, and Carlton and Western Bulldogs switching 9th and 10th and, on MoSHBODS, Melbourne and Brisbane Lions switching 2nd and 3rd.
Ten teams are now rated above-average on MoSSBODS, with 1st and 10th separated by only 4.7 SS, which equates to about 17 points. Twelve teams are rated above-average on MoSHBODS, with 1st and 10th separated by only 19.8 points.
It’s been, as we thought fairly early on, a very even competition with no stand out teams.
That absence is borne out by a comparison of the two 2023 Grand Finalist’s ratings with those of the Grand Finalists since 1980.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9926 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.61 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Crows, Giants, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Giants, Crows, and Lions. On defence MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Dees, Dockers, and Giants, while MoSHBODS now has it as Dees, Giants, and Pies.
MoSSBODS still has 8 teams rated as above average on offence, and MoSHBODS has 10 teams. As well, MoSSBODS still has 12 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS still has 10.
On MoSSBODS, 6 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 4 are rated negatively on both (no change), two are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 6 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.56, which is the same as last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked four teams this week, most notably moving the Dees back ahead of the Pies, but also the Giants ahead of the Dogs.
That means that this year’s Grand Finalists are ranked 1st and 3rd on MARS, 4th and 8th on MoSSBODS, and 3rd and 6th on MoSHBODS.
Last year, all three Systems had the Grnad Finalists - Geelong and Sydney - ranked 1st and 2nd. MARS had Geelong rated 1,046.5 and Sydney rated 1,031.2. Collingwood’s 2023 Rating of 1,026.2, is closest to Richmond’s 4th-placed Rating of 1,023.2 in 2022.
The MARS Rating Gap between 1st and 10th is just under 21 Rating Points, which equates to about 15 actual points on a neutral venue.
The season will end with 11 teams rated better-than-average by MARS.
Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that GWS and Geelong (7 spots) have the widest range of rankings, and that there are six more teams for whom the rankings span a range of more than two spots.
There are also four teams that the Systems unanimously rank the same way: Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast.
MARS has the most extreme rankings for 12 teams, MoSSBODS for five, and MoSHBODS for only two.
MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of five teams, MoSSBODS and MARS also about five, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now about the ranking of 11 teams.
